20405 Winfred Dr · Athens, AL 35671

$534,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,876 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 72 Days on market

Built 2011 1.60 ac lot $186/sqft · 11% above area Est $637k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.7/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Cash flow +3.7/30.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious remodeled home on approximately 1.6 acres in a prime location at 20405 Winfred Drive, just minutes from I-65, Athens, & Decatur. This property offers approx. 3,500 square feet w/ 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, & a flexible layout with room to spread out. Outdoor features are just as impressive w/ a 10x22 covered front porch, 16x16 rear deck, 27x12 patio cover, & an 18x36 in-ground pool w/ liner replaced in 2022, creating the perfect setup for entertaining or relaxing at home. The attached 16x23 carport adds everyday convenience, while the separate apartment offers great potential for guests, extended family, or private workspace. Major updates include a new roof in 2023 & new hot heater

Key facts

• 1.6 acre lot
• Built 2011
• Listed 72 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $535k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-19k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $259k (51.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $210k (60.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $210k (60.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 2.8% vs local median 3.6% in Athens — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#18 in AL, #4,019 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, commute F.
• Limestone County (rural): math 21% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #52 of 129 in AL (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 24 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 494 units permitted in Limestone County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $57k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $53k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Limestone County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$92k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($503k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $209,500 (60.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 61% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.39% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.79%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.52%
• DSCR: 0.44
• GRM: 21.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $636,882
• List price: $534,900
• Delta: -16.01%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 16 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
19881 Capitol Hill Dr	0.74mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,914 (+1%)	3mo	$550,000	$189	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.28×
• Total profit: $191,560
• Equity at exit: $481,880

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.29×
• Total profit: $641,835
• Equity at exit: $1,039,193

Cash invested: $149,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35671

• Home prices YoY: 14.1%
• Active inventory: 24
• Price-to-rent: 21.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,095 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,805
• Tax from tax record: −$189 /mo · $2,272/yr
• Insurance: −$223
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$440
• Net cashflow: $-1,562

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,072

Max offer price $258,931

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $133,725
• Closing costs: $16,047
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11915 US Highway 31 Tanner, AL	4.0	2.5	2303	$2,095	$0.91	14d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $534,900 Active 72 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $534,900 Active 71 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $534,900 Active 70 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $534,900 Active 69 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $534,900 Active 67 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $534,900 Active 64 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $534,900 Active 63 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $534,900 Active 62 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $534,900 Active 61 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $534,900 Active 58 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $534,900 Active 57 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $534,900 Active 56 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $534,900 Active 55 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $534,900 Active 54 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $534,900 Active 53 DOM
16. 2026-05-04
    price $544,900 715-char remark

    Show marketing remark (707 chars)

    Spacious remodeled home on approximately 1.6 acres in a prime location at 20405 Winfred Drive, just minutes from I-65, Athens, & Decatur. This property offers approx. 3,500 square feet w/3 bedrooms, 2 baths, & a flexible layout with room to spread out. Outdoor features are just as impressive w/a 10x22 covered front porch, 16x16 rear deck, 27x12 patio cover, & an 18x36 in-ground pool w/liner replaced in 2022, creating the perfect setup for entertaining or relaxing at home. The attached 16x23 carport adds everyday convenience, while the separate apartment offers great potential for guests, extended family, or private workspace. Major updates include a new roof in 2023 & new hot heater

17. 2026-05-04
    price $544,900 707-char remark

    Show marketing remark (707 chars)

    Spacious remodeled home on approximately 1.6 acres in a prime location at 20405 Winfred Drive, just minutes from I-65, Athens, & Decatur. This property offers approx. 3,500 square feet w/3 bedrooms, 2 baths, & a flexible layout with room to spread out. Outdoor features are just as impressive w/a 10x22 covered front porch, 16x16 rear deck, 27x12 patio cover, & an 18x36 in-ground pool w/liner replaced in 2022, creating the perfect setup for entertaining or relaxing at home. The attached 16x23 carport adds everyday convenience, while the separate apartment offers great potential for guests, extended family, or private workspace. Major updates include a new roof in 2023 & new hot heater

18. 2026-04-07
    listed $549,900 Active 715-char remark

    Show marketing remark (707 chars)

    Spacious remodeled home on approximately 1.6 acres in a prime location at 20405 Winfred Drive, just minutes from I-65, Athens, & Decatur. This property offers approx. 3,500 square feet w/3 bedrooms, 2 baths, & a flexible layout with room to spread out. Outdoor features are just as impressive w/a 10x22 covered front porch, 16x16 rear deck, 27x12 patio cover, & an 18x36 in-ground pool w/liner replaced in 2022, creating the perfect setup for entertaining or relaxing at home. The attached 16x23 carport adds everyday convenience, while the separate apartment offers great potential for guests, extended family, or private workspace. Major updates include a new roof in 2023 & new hot heater

19. 2026-04-07
    listed $549,900 Active 707-char remark

    Show marketing remark (707 chars)

    Spacious remodeled home on approximately 1.6 acres in a prime location at 20405 Winfred Drive, just minutes from I-65, Athens, & Decatur. This property offers approx. 3,500 square feet w/3 bedrooms, 2 baths, & a flexible layout with room to spread out. Outdoor features are just as impressive w/a 10x22 covered front porch, 16x16 rear deck, 27x12 patio cover, & an 18x36 in-ground pool w/liner replaced in 2022, creating the perfect setup for entertaining or relaxing at home. The attached 16x23 carport adds everyday convenience, while the separate apartment offers great potential for guests, extended family, or private workspace. Major updates include a new roof in 2023 & new hot heater

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,272 · $189/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,272 · $189/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 20% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,140
• − Mortgage interest: −$29,963
• − Property taxes: −$2,272
• − Insurance: −$2,674
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,011
• − Management: −$2,011
• − Depreciation: −$15,561
• Taxable loss: −$29,352
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$7,044
• After-tax cash flow: $-11,702/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Limestone County
• NCES district ID: 0102100
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $48,972
• Composite: 28.09/100
• National rank: #6829
• State rank: #52 of 129 in AL

Livability — Athens

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #18
• US rank: #4019

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 55,492
• Population (ZIP): 1,907

Population outlook (Limestone County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 111,441 people
• By 2030: 121,272 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 140,705 · +26.3%
• By 2050: 159,069 · +42.7%
• By 2075: 202,231 · +81.5%
• By 2100: 230,608 · +106.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 52% White 40% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 6% Iranian 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Limestone

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.9) · D 27.5% · R 71.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.0pp toward R · 2008: -41.9pp · 2024: -43.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.9 2020: R+42.6 2016: R+49.5 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+41.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 22.86%
• Current HPI: 185.03
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

-0.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $544,900 SAARMLS
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $544,900 VMLS
• 2026-04-07 Listed $549,900 SAARMLS
• 2026-04-07 Listed $549,900 VMLS

Property tax history

+19.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,272 · +7.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.