5223 Gay Ave

Cahokia Heights, IL 62207

$37,000B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,292 sqft · Built 1960 · SingleFamily · Pending · 1 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,195/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$194
• Tax + insurance: −$200
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$251
• Net cashflow: $550/mo
• Annual: $6,594/yr
• Cap rate: 29.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 81.26%
• DSCR: 4.62
• 1% rule: 3.23%
• Cash to close: $10,360

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $37k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $550 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $37k).
• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• In year one you build about $340 of equity ($256 loan paydown + $84 appreciation (0.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Cahokia CUSD 187 (suburban): math 3% / reading 5% proficiency, ranked #864 of 919 in IL (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 85% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Cahokia High School (math 8% / reading 2%, grade F, #614 of 693 statewide, top 95%, 845 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 85% district-wide (85 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $152/mo.
• Market conditions: 4 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 783 units permitted in St. Clair County in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).
• St. Clair County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (0.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AH (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 29.0% vs local median 13.6% in Cahokia Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.