5223 Gay Ave · Cahokia Heights, IL 62207

$37,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,292 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1960 10,454 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.6/10.0

Key facts

• 0.24 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1960

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with space for 2 vehicles
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected (Ameren)
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Front yard; Back yard

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Crawl space basement; Five total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $37k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $550 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $37k).
• Cap rate 29.0% vs local median 13.6% in Cahokia Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Cahokia CUSD 187 (suburban): math 3% / reading 5% proficiency, ranked #864 of 919 in IL (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 85% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Cahokia High School (math 8% / reading 2%, grade F, #614 of 693 statewide, top 95%, 845 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 85% district-wide (85 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 4 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 783 units permitted in St. Clair County in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $340 of equity ($256 loan paydown + $84 appreciation (0.2% local appreciation)).
• St. Clair County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (0.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $152/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AH (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $37,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 29.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 81.26%
• DSCR: 4.62
• GRM: 2.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $20,672
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4918 Piggott Ave	0.49mi	3/1.0	1,213 (-6%)	15mo	$20,000	$16	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.23% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 65.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.32×
• Total profit: $34,418
• Equity at exit: $11,167

10-year hold

• IRR: 67.7%
• Equity multiple: 8.80×
• Total profit: $80,766
• Equity at exit: $13,765

Cash invested: $10,360 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62207

• Home prices YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 4
• Price-to-rent: 2.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,195 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$194
• Tax from tax record: −$33 /mo · $396/yr
• Insurance: −$15
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$152 /mo · $1,824/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$251
• Net cashflow: $550

Break-even live

Break-even rent $499

Max offer price $37,000

Occupancy floor 49%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,250
• Closing costs: $1,110
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2231 Loren St Cahokia Heights, IL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,195	$1.20	44d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-06-08
   listed $37,000 Pending 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $396 · $33/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $618 · $52/mo
• Expected delta: +$222/yr (+$18/mo · 55.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AH · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,340
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,073
• − Property taxes: −$396
• − Insurance: −$2,009
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,147
• − Management: −$1,147
• − Depreciation: −$1,076
• Taxable income: $6,491
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,558
• After-tax cash flow: $5,037/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cahokia CUSD 187
• NCES district ID: 1708040
• Math proficiency: 3% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 5% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $28,028
• Composite: 6.44/100
• National rank: #14827
• State rank: #864 of 919 in IL

Livability — Cahokia Heights

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cahokia Heights, IL
• City population: 19,956
• Population (ZIP): 6,801

Population outlook (St. Clair County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 250,366 people
• By 2030: 240,511 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 217,391 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 192,699 · -23.0%
• By 2075: 140,637 · -43.8%
• By 2100: 100,499 · -59.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 97% White 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Clair

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+7.9) · D 53.0% · R 45.1% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: 22.4pp · 2024: 7.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+7.9 2020: D+8.7 2016: D+5.6 2012: D+14.5 2008: D+22.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.23%
• Current HPI: 113.8542
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-06-07 Listed $37,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+165.2%/yr

Latest (2024): $396 · +165.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.