2500 Springs Rd #130

Vallejo, CA 94591

$69,000C+

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 480 sqft · Built 1974 · Manufactured · Active · 128 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,372/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$362
• Tax + insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$288
• Net cashflow: $607/mo
• Annual: $7,287/yr
• Cap rate: 16.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 37.72%
• DSCR: 2.68
• 1% rule: 1.99%
• Cash to close: $19,320

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $69k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $607 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $69k).
• It's been on market 128 days — a 12% lower offer ($61k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $61k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $477 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#304 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Vallejo City Unified (urban): math 20% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #1,124 of 1,400 in CA (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Annie Pennycook Elementary (451 students, 75% FRL); Hogan Middle (867 students, 85% FRL); Jesse M. Bethel High (math 32% / reading 52%, grade F, #472 of 1,170 statewide, top 42%, 1,481 students, 79% FRL) — zoned schools average 80% FRL vs 62% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 42% at this address vs 25% district-wide (+17 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Vallejo City Unified average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 278 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,472 units permitted in Solano County in 2024 (131 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Solano County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $12k; list at $69k implies a 500% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.4% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 16.9% vs local median 3.2% in Vallejo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent is only 16% of the median local income ($105k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 128 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.