10086 E Old M 63

Ellsworth, MI 49656

$184,900D-

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,450 sqft · Built 1972 · SingleFamily · Active · 37 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,257/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax + insurance: −$222
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$264
• Net cashflow: $-199/mo
• Annual: $-2,383/yr
• Cap rate: 5.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.60%
• DSCR: 0.80
• 1% rule: 0.68%
• Cash to close: $51,772

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-199 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $150k (19.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $126k (32.0% below list).
• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $126k (32.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $13k appreciation (7.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#375 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: crime D+, schools D, amenities F.
• Pine River Area Schools (rural): math 22% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #369 of 540 in MI (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 44 active listings in the ZIP; 30 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lake County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 12 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $90k; list at $185k implies a 106% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.