10086 E Old M 63 · Ellsworth, MI 49656

$184,900

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,450 sqft · SingleFamily · 37 Days on market

Built 1972 5.55 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +8.6/10.0
• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Affixed manufactured home on owned land in rural Luther, Michigan, offering a private and peaceful setting surrounded by nature. The property includes recorded affidavit of affixture (2018), making it real property with improvements on a permanent foundation. Enjoy private access to Howe Lake, ideal for fishing, kayaking, and quiet recreational use. The area is also surrounded by abundant nearby public land, making it a strong fit for hunting enthusiasts, outdoor recreation, or anyone seeking a Northern Michigan getaway feel year-round. Originally built in 1972, the home offers expanded living space with a fireplace, additions and a crawlspace foundation, The majority of the home was renovated in 2022,with new floors, bathrooms and plumbing. The polebarn has separate 400amp Electrical. Cash or portfolio financing only due to age of construction (pre-1976 manufactured home). A rare opportunity to own affordable lake-access property with privacy, recreation, and potential.

Key facts

• New floors
• Surrounded by nature
• New bathrooms

Tags

• PRIVATE ACCESS TO HOWE LAKE
• SURROUNDED BY NATURE
• ABUNDANT NEARBY PUBLIC LAND
• EXPANDED LIVING SPACE
• NEW FLOORS
• NEW BATHROOMS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Well water
• Home design: Ranch-style home; Single-story
• Construction: Built in 1972; Vinyl and wood siding; Metal roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Wooded lot; Wetland area; Waterfront on Howe Lake

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (12 x 12)
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Outdoor furnace (supplemental heat)
• Interior features: Fireplace; Total of 8 rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Outdoor furnace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-199 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $150k (19.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $126k (32.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $126k (32.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#375 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: crime D+, schools D, amenities F.
• Pine River Area Schools (rural): math 22% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #369 of 540 in MI (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 44 active listings in the ZIP; 30 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $13k appreciation (7.2% local appreciation)).
• Lake County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 12 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $90k; list at $185k implies a 106% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $125,727 (32.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.60%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.18% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.04×
• Total profit: $53,912
• Equity at exit: $130,285

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.20×
• Total profit: $165,913
• Equity at exit: $249,460

Cash invested: $51,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49656

• Home prices YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 44
• Price-to-rent: 12.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,257 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$145 /mo · $1,741/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$264
• Net cashflow: $-199

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,509

Max offer price $149,826

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,225
• Closing costs: $5,547
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 40 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $184,900 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $184,900 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $184,900 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $184,900 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $184,900 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $184,900 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $184,900 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $184,900 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $184,900 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $184,900 Active 25 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $194,900 Active 22 DOM

    Show marketing remark (985 chars)

    Affixed manufactured home on owned land in rural Luther, Michigan, offering a private and peaceful setting surrounded by nature. The property includes recorded affidavit of affixture (2018), making it real property with improvements on a permanent foundation. Enjoy private access to Howe Lake, ideal for fishing, kayaking, and quiet recreational use. The area is also surrounded by abundant nearby public land, making it a strong fit for hunting enthusiasts, outdoor recreation, or anyone seeking a Northern Michigan getaway feel year-round. Originally built in 1972, the home offers expanded living space with a fireplace, additions and a crawlspace foundation, The majority of the home was renovated in 2022,with new floors, bathrooms and plumbing. The polebarn has separate 400amp Electrical. Cash or portfolio financing only due to age of construction (pre-1976 manufactured home). A rare opportunity to own affordable lake-access property with privacy, recreation, and potential.

12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $194,900 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $194,900 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $194,900 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $194,900 Active 18 DOM
16. 2026-05-12
    listed $194,900 Active 990-char remark

    Show marketing remark (985 chars)

    Affixed manufactured home on owned land in rural Luther, Michigan, offering a private and peaceful setting surrounded by nature. The property includes recorded affidavit of affixture (2018), making it real property with improvements on a permanent foundation. Enjoy private access to Howe Lake, ideal for fishing, kayaking, and quiet recreational use. The area is also surrounded by abundant nearby public land, making it a strong fit for hunting enthusiasts, outdoor recreation, or anyone seeking a Northern Michigan getaway feel year-round. Originally built in 1972, the home offers expanded living space with a fireplace, additions and a crawlspace foundation, The majority of the home was renovated in 2022,with new floors, bathrooms and plumbing. The polebarn has separate 400amp Electrical. Cash or portfolio financing only due to age of construction (pre-1976 manufactured home). A rare opportunity to own affordable lake-access property with privacy, recreation, and potential.

17. 2026-05-12
    listed $194,900 Active 985-char remark

    Show marketing remark (985 chars)

    Affixed manufactured home on owned land in rural Luther, Michigan, offering a private and peaceful setting surrounded by nature. The property includes recorded affidavit of affixture (2018), making it real property with improvements on a permanent foundation. Enjoy private access to Howe Lake, ideal for fishing, kayaking, and quiet recreational use. The area is also surrounded by abundant nearby public land, making it a strong fit for hunting enthusiasts, outdoor recreation, or anyone seeking a Northern Michigan getaway feel year-round. Originally built in 1972, the home offers expanded living space with a fireplace, additions and a crawlspace foundation, The majority of the home was renovated in 2022,with new floors, bathrooms and plumbing. The polebarn has separate 400amp Electrical. Cash or portfolio financing only due to age of construction (pre-1976 manufactured home). A rare opportunity to own affordable lake-access property with privacy, recreation, and potential.

18. 2026-05-12
    listed $194,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (985 chars)

    Affixed manufactured home on owned land in rural Luther, Michigan, offering a private and peaceful setting surrounded by nature. The property includes recorded affidavit of affixture (2018), making it real property with improvements on a permanent foundation. Enjoy private access to Howe Lake, ideal for fishing, kayaking, and quiet recreational use. The area is also surrounded by abundant nearby public land, making it a strong fit for hunting enthusiasts, outdoor recreation, or anyone seeking a Northern Michigan getaway feel year-round. Originally built in 1972, the home offers expanded living space with a fireplace, additions and a crawlspace foundation, The majority of the home was renovated in 2022,with new floors, bathrooms and plumbing. The polebarn has separate 400amp Electrical. Cash or portfolio financing only due to age of construction (pre-1976 manufactured home). A rare opportunity to own affordable lake-access property with privacy, recreation, and potential.

19. 2020-10-26
    soldstatus $89,900
20. 2020-10-26
    soldstatus $89,900 Sold
21. 2020-10-26
    soldstatus $89,900
22. 2020-10-26
    soldstatus $89,900
23. 2020-10-26
    soldstatus $89,900
24. 2020-10-04
    status Pending
25. 2020-10-01
    listed $89,900
26. 2020-10-01
    listed $89,900 Active
27. 2020-10-01
    listed $89,900
28. 2020-09-30
    listed $89,900
29. 2020-09-30
    listed $89,900
30. 2018-10-26
    soldstatus $107,500
31. 2018-10-26
    soldstatus $107,500 Sold
32. 2018-10-26
    listed $107,500
33. 2018-10-22
    soldstatus $106,750
34. 2018-08-27
    status Pending
35. 2018-08-16
    price $111,900
36. 2018-07-25
    price $117,900
37. 2018-06-13
    listed $111,900
38. 2018-06-13
    listed $123,900 Active
39. 2014-09-26
    historical
40. 2006-03-31
    listed $104,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,741 · $145/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,294 · $191/mo
• Expected delta: +$553/yr (+$46/mo · 31.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,087
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,357
• − Property taxes: −$1,741
• − Insurance: −$924
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,207
• − Management: −$1,207
• − Depreciation: −$5,379
• Taxable loss: −$5,729
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,375
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,008/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pine River Area Schools
• NCES district ID: 2628200
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $41,589
• Composite: 25.34/100
• National rank: #7475
• State rank: #369 of 540 in MI

Livability — Ellsworth

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #375
• US rank: #9810

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,111

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,933 people
• By 2030: 10,503 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 9,470 · -13.4%
• By 2050: 8,526 · -22.0%
• By 2075: 7,160 · -34.5%
• By 2100: 5,634 · -48.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10% Puerto Rican 8%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.2) · D 33.2% · R 65.4% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -44.5pp toward R · 2008: 12.3pp · 2024: -32.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.2 2020: R+26.2 2016: R+22.9 2012: D+5.0 2008: D+12.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.18%
• Current HPI: 216.7299
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+76.3% since first listed

28 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Price Changed $184,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-06-04 Price Changed $184,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-06-04 Price Changed $184,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-05-12 Listed $194,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-05-12 Listed $194,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-12 Listed $194,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2020-10-26 Sold (Public Records) $89,900 Public Records
• 2020-10-26 Sold (MLS) $89,900 REALCOMP
• 2020-10-26 Sold (MLS) $89,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2020-10-26 Sold (MLS) $89,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2020-10-26 Sold (MLS) $89,900 REALCOMP
• 2020-10-04 Pending — SW Michigan MLS
• 2020-10-01 Listed $89,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2020-10-01 Listed $89,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2020-10-01 Listed $89,900 REALCOMP
• 2020-09-30 Listed $89,900 REALCOMP
• 2020-09-30 Listed $89,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2018-10-26 Listed $107,500 REALCOMP
• 2018-10-26 Sold (MLS) $107,500 SW Michigan MLS
• 2018-10-26 Sold (MLS) $107,500 REALCOMP
• 2018-10-22 Sold (Public Records) $106,750 Public Records
• 2018-08-27 Pending — SW Michigan MLS
• 2018-08-16 Price Changed $111,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2018-07-25 Price Changed $117,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2018-06-13 Listed $123,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2018-06-13 Listed $111,900 REALCOMP
• 2014-09-26 Listing Removed — SW Michigan MLS
• 2006-03-31 Listed $104,900 SW Michigan MLS

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,741 · +4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.