580 Captain Carter Rd

Spencer, TN 38585

$85,900B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 650 sqft · Built 1997 · Manufactured · Active · 62 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $917/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$450
• Tax + insurance: −$143
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$193
• Net cashflow: $131/mo
• Annual: $1,566/yr
• Cap rate: 8.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.51%
• DSCR: 1.29
• 1% rule: 1.07%
• Cash to close: $24,052

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $86k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $131 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($917 rent vs $86k).
• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($81k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $81k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($594 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (2.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#99 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Van Buren County (rural): math 28% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #96 of 139 in TN (top 69%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 181 active listings in the ZIP; 8 units permitted in Van Buren County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Van Buren County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $15k; list at $86k implies a 479% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (2.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 2.5% in Spencer — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.