580 Captain Carter Rd · Spencer, TN 38585

$85,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 650 sqft · Manufactured public records · 60 Days on market

Built 1997 1.03 ac lot $132/sqft · at area comps Est $131k · 34% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• Appreciation +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 BR4 2 BATH HOME WITH ON LARGE 1 PLUSE ACRE. CONVENIENT TO HWY 111. CLOSE TO STATE PARKS, HIKING AND FISHING. SECOND BUILDING WITH POTENTION TO BE 2ND LIVING QUARTERS.

Key facts

• Close to state parks
• Hiking and fishing
• Second building

Tags

• LARGE 1 PLUSE ACRE
• CLOSE TO STATE PARKS
• HIKING AND FISHING
• SECOND BUILDING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $86k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $131 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($917 rent vs $86k).
• Recommended offer: $83k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 2.5% in Spencer — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#99 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Van Buren County (rural): math 28% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #96 of 139 in TN (top 69%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 181 active listings in the ZIP; 8 units permitted in Van Buren County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($594 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (2.8% local appreciation)).
• Van Buren County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (2.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($83k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $15k; list at $86k implies a 479% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $83,323 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.51%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $131,000
• List price: $85,900
• Delta: -34.43%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

2.77% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.73×
• Total profit: $17,655
• Equity at exit: $37,539

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.18×
• Total profit: $52,512
• Equity at exit: $57,021

Cash invested: $24,052 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38585

• Home prices YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 181
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $917 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$450
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$107 /mo · $1,288/yr
• Insurance: −$36
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$193
• Net cashflow: $131

Break-even live

Break-even rent $751

Max offer price $85,900

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $190	-5% $160	+0% $131	+5% $101	+10% $71
Rent	-10% $58	-5% $94	+0% $131	+5% $167	+10% $203
Rate	-1.0pp $174	-0.5pp $152	base $131	+0.5pp $108	+1.0pp $86

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,475
• Closing costs: $2,577
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $85,900 Active 60 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $85,900 Active 59 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $85,900 Active 58 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $85,900 Active 57 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,900 Active 56 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $85,900 Active 54 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $85,900 Active 53 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $85,900 Active 50 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $85,900 Active 49 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $85,900 Active 48 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $85,900 Active 45 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $85,900 Active 44 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $85,900 Active 43 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $85,900 Active 42 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,900 Active 41 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $85,900 Active 40 DOM
17. 2026-05-11
    price $94,900 169-char remark

    Show marketing remark (169 chars)

    3 BR4 2 BATH HOME WITH ON LARGE 1 PLUSE ACRE. CONVENIENT TO HWY 111. CLOSE TO STATE PARKS, HIKING AND FISHING. SECOND BUILDING WITH POTENTION TO BE 2ND LIVING QUARTERS.

18. 2026-05-07
    price $94,900 168-char remark

    Show marketing remark (168 chars)

    3 BR4 2 BATH HOME WITH ON LARGE 1 PLUSE ACRE. CONVENIENT TO HWY 111. CLOSE TO STATE PARKS, HIKING AND FISHING. SECOND BUILDING WITH POTENTION TO BE 2ND LIVING QUARTERS.

19. 2026-04-20
    listed $99,900 Active 168-char remark

    Show marketing remark (168 chars)

    3 BR4 2 BATH HOME WITH ON LARGE 1 PLUSE ACRE. CONVENIENT TO HWY 111. CLOSE TO STATE PARKS, HIKING AND FISHING. SECOND BUILDING WITH POTENTION TO BE 2ND LIVING QUARTERS.

20. 2026-04-04
    listed $99,900 Active 169-char remark

    Show marketing remark (169 chars)

    3 BR4 2 BATH HOME WITH ON LARGE 1 PLUSE ACRE. CONVENIENT TO HWY 111. CLOSE TO STATE PARKS, HIKING AND FISHING. SECOND BUILDING WITH POTENTION TO BE 2ND LIVING QUARTERS.

21. 2003-08-22
    soldstatus $14,847

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,812
• − Property taxes: −$1,288
• − Insurance: −$430
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$880
• − Management: −$880
• − Depreciation: −$2,499
• Taxable income: $211
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$51
• After-tax cash flow: $1,516/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Van Buren County
• NCES district ID: 4704320
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $35,459
• Composite: 20.29/100
• National rank: #8617
• State rank: #96 of 139 in TN

Livability — Spencer

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #99
• US rank: #10391

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,550

Population outlook (Van Buren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,883 people
• By 2030: 5,925 · +0.7%
• By 2040: 5,877 · -0.1%
• By 2050: 5,706 · -3.0%
• By 2075: 5,162 · -12.3%
• By 2100: 4,450 · -24.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 5%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · German/W. Germanic 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Van Buren

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+67.2) · D 16.1% · R 83.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -46.8pp toward R · 2008: -20.4pp · 2024: -67.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+67.2 2020: R+61.6 2016: R+53.0 2012: R+22.1 2008: R+20.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.77%
• Current HPI: 382.7379
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+539.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $94,900 UCMLS
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $94,900 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-20 Listed $99,900 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-04 Listed $99,900 UCMLS
• 2003-08-22 Sold (Public Records) $14,847 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $166 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.