277 Summer St

St. Johnsbury, VT 05819

$198,000D

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 4,592 sqft · Built 1890 · SingleFamily · Active · 49 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,644/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,038
• Tax + insurance: −$286
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$345
• Net cashflow: $-26/mo
• Annual: $-313/yr
• Cap rate: 6.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.56%
• DSCR: 0.97
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $55,440

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $198k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-26 ($-313/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $193k (2.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $164k (17.0% below list).
• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($192k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $164k (17.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-2.4%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Zoned schools: St. Johnsbury School (math 19% / reading 37%, grade F, #149 of 192 statewide, top 78%, 702 students, 52% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 66 active listings in the ZIP; 112 units permitted in Caledonia County in 2024 (15 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Caledonia County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $170k; 16% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.4% in St. Johnsbury — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.