277 Summer St · St. Johnsbury, VT 05819

$198,000

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 4,592 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 47 Days on market

Built 1890 8,712 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Appreciation +3.8/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

This stately Victorian offers a compelling opportunity for investors or developers looking to complete and capitalize on a thoughtfully reconfigured multi-family project. Rich with original craftsmanship, the home still showcases the hallmarks of its era: tall ceilings, detailed woodwork, built-ins, and an overall sense of scale and presence that newer construction rarely replicates. A wraparound front porch further enhances its architectural appeal and curb presence. Formerly configured as four units, the property has since been approved and partially converted into a six-unit apartment building. The proposed layout includes a three-bedroom unit, a two-bedroom unit, and four one-bedroom un

Key facts

• More parking
• Updated mechanicals
• Corner lot

Tags

• WRAPAROUND FRONT PORCH
• UPDATED MECHANICALS
• CORNER LOT
• MORE PARKING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Total of 6 rental units

Exterior

• Parking: Paved driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service with circuit breakers; Cable internet available; Telephone available
• Home design: Victorian style; White exterior; Existing building
• Construction: Built in 1890; Wood frame construction; Membrane, shingle, and slate roofing; Foundation information not specified
• Exterior features: Corner lot in town; Paved driveway; Public road frontage (185 ft)

Interior

• Bedrooms: Six-unit property with units containing: four 1-bedroom units, one 2-bedroom unit, and one 3-bedroom unit (unit levels vary)
• Flooring: Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: Each unit includes 1 bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Oil heating; Baseboard heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: Walk-up basement; Unfinished basement with concrete and dirt floors

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $198k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-26 ($-313/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $193k (2.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $164k (17.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $164k (17.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.4% in St. Johnsbury — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Zoned schools: St. Johnsbury School (math 19% / reading 37%, grade F, #149 of 192 statewide, top 78%, 702 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: 66 active listings in the ZIP; 112 units permitted in Caledonia County in 2024 (15 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.4%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Caledonia County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($192k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $170k; 16% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $164,402 (17.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.56%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.41% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-28,827
• Equity at exit: $34,755

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-22,952
• Equity at exit: $26,244

Cash invested: $55,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Vermont: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause in Burlington (2022); strong habitability.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 05819

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 66
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,644 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,038
• Tax from tax record: −$204 /mo · $2,448/yr
• Insurance: −$82
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$345
• Net cashflow: $-26

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,677

Max offer price $193,399

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,500
• Closing costs: $5,940
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $198,000 Active 47 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $198,000 Active 46 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $198,000 Active 45 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $198,000 Active 44 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $198,000 Active 43 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $198,000 Active 42 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $198,000 Active 41 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $198,000 Active 38 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $198,000 Active 37 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $198,000 Active 36 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $198,000 Active 35 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $198,000 Active 32 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $198,000 Active 31 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $198,000 Active 30 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $198,000 Active 29 DOM
16. 2026-05-02
    listed $198,000 Active
17. 2025-04-10
    price $249,000
18. 2023-02-06
    soldstatus $170,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,448 · $204/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,105 · $259/mo
• Expected delta: +$657/yr (+$55/mo · 26.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥92°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,728
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,091
• − Property taxes: −$2,448
• − Insurance: −$990
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,578
• − Management: −$1,578
• − Depreciation: −$5,760
• Taxable loss: −$3,717
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$892
• After-tax cash flow: $580/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — St. Johnsbury

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Johnsbury, VT
• Population (ZIP): 9,323

Population outlook (Caledonia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 29,828 people
• By 2030: 28,820 · -3.4%
• By 2040: 26,262 · -12.0%
• By 2050: 23,780 · -20.3%
• By 2075: 18,516 · -37.9%
• By 2100: 13,647 · -54.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 11% Slovak 6% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Caledonia

• 2024 margin: D (+12.4) · D 54.5% · R 42.0% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.8pp toward R · 2008: 23.3pp · 2024: 12.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.4 2020: D+15.2 2016: D+7.0 2012: D+22.9 2008: D+23.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.41%
• Current HPI: 291.8894
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+16.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Listed $198,000 PrimeMLS
• 2025-04-10 Price Changed $249,000 PrimeMLS
• 2023-02-06 Sold (Public Records) $170,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-4.0%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,448 · +18.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.