910 Hickory St

Chelsea, OK 74016

$169,000D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,624 sqft · Built 1960 · SingleFamily · Pending · 2 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,193/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax + insurance: −$132
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$251
• Net cashflow: $-75/mo
• Annual: $-904/yr
• Cap rate: 5.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.91%
• DSCR: 0.92
• 1% rule: 0.71%
• Cash to close: $47,320

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $169k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-75 ($-904/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $156k (7.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $119k (29.4% below list).
• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $119k (29.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#314 in OK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Chelsea (rural): math 9% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #224 of 270 in OK (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Art Goad Es (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #711 of 845 statewide, top 87%, 390 students, 0% FRL); Chelsea Ms (math 12% / reading 22%, grade F, #193 of 345 statewide, top 60%, 162 students, 0% FRL); Chelsea Hs (math 5% / reading 24%, grade F, #332 of 447 statewide, top 78%, 232 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 62% district-wide (62 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 63 active listings in the ZIP; 608 units permitted in Rogers County in 2024 (7 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Rogers County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $47k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.8% in Chelsea — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.