910 Hickory St · Chelsea, OK 74016

$169,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,624 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1960 0.35 ac lot Est $182k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.9/30.0
• ARV discount +10.7/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful corner lot with mature trees. Windows updated w/ double pane vinyl windows approx 2008. Water heater new 2021, Hvac new 2019 or 2020. Hardwood Floors.

Key facts

• Mcspadden park
• Custom vintage tile
• Covered patio

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• MCSPADDEN PARK
• COVERED PATIO
• CUSTOM VINTAGE TILE
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $169k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-75 ($-904/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $156k (7.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $119k (29.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $119k (29.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.8% in Chelsea — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#314 in OK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Chelsea (rural): math 9% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #224 of 270 in OK (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Art Goad Es (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #711 of 845 statewide, top 87%, 390 students, 0% FRL); Chelsea Ms (math 12% / reading 22%, grade F, #193 of 345 statewide, top 60%, 162 students, 0% FRL); Chelsea Hs (math 5% / reading 24%, grade F, #332 of 447 statewide, top 78%, 232 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 62% district-wide (62 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 63 active listings in the ZIP; 608 units permitted in Rogers County in 2024 (7 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Rogers County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $47k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $119,299 (29.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.91%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $181,888
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
910 Hickory St	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,624 (0%)	1mo	$175,000	$108	100
705 Park St	0.26mi	3/1.5	1,624 (0%)	13mo	$140,000	$86	75
508 W 11th St	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,506 (-7%)	8mo	$169,000	$112	73
5845 Bluestem Way	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,555 (-4%)	6mo	$271,000	$174	59
5905 Bluestem Way	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,530 (-6%)	1mo	$260,000	$170	58
316 W 4th St	0.51mi	3/2.5	1,770 (+9%)	3mo	$181,000	$102	57
446 W 11th St	0.23mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,834 (+13%)	15mo	$241,500	$132	51
901 Olive St	0.41mi	3/1.5	1,417 (-13%)	11mo	$152,500	$108	48
5932 Bluestem Way	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,511 (-7%)	23mo	$245,000	$162	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.84×
• Total profit: $87,172
• Equity at exit: $152,249

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.50×
• Total profit: $260,331
• Equity at exit: $328,330

Cash invested: $47,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Oklahoma: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 74016

• Home prices YoY: 34.4%
• Active inventory: 63
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,193 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax from tax record: −$61 /mo · $733/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$251
• Net cashflow: $-75

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,288

Max offer price $155,699

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $20	-5% $-27	+0% $-75	+5% $-123	+10% $-171
Rent	-10% $-170	-5% $-122	+0% $-75	+5% $-28	+10% $19
Rate	-1.0pp $10	-0.5pp $-32	base $-75	+0.5pp $-119	+1.0pp $-164

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,250
• Closing costs: $5,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-04-26
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-24
   listed $169,000 Active
3. 2022-06-20
   soldstatus $150,000
4. 2022-06-16
   soldstatus $150,000 Closed 162-char remark

   Show marketing remark (162 chars)

   Beautiful corner lot with mature trees. Windows updated w/ double pane vinyl windows approx 2008. Water heater new 2021, Hvac new 2019 or 2020. Hardwood Floors.

5. 2022-05-03
   status Pending 162-char remark

   Show marketing remark (162 chars)

   Beautiful corner lot with mature trees. Windows updated w/ double pane vinyl windows approx 2008. Water heater new 2021, Hvac new 2019 or 2020. Hardwood Floors.

6. 2022-04-28
   listed $149,900 Active 162-char remark

   Show marketing remark (162 chars)

   Beautiful corner lot with mature trees. Windows updated w/ double pane vinyl windows approx 2008. Water heater new 2021, Hvac new 2019 or 2020. Hardwood Floors.

7. 2006-05-05
   historical
8. 2006-01-26
   historical
9. 2006-01-25
   listed $98,500
10. 2005-07-25
    listed $104,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OK · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $733 · $61/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,521 · $127/mo
• Expected delta: +$788/yr (+$66/mo · 107.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,316
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,467
• − Property taxes: −$733
• − Insurance: −$845
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,145
• − Management: −$1,145
• − Depreciation: −$4,916
• Taxable loss: −$3,936
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$945
• After-tax cash flow: $41/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chelsea
• NCES district ID: 4007380
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $45,149
• Composite: 12.85/100
• National rank: #9595
• State rank: #224 of 270 in OK

Livability — Chelsea

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #314
• US rank: #18185

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Chelsea, OK
• Population (ZIP): 5,787

Population outlook (Rogers County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 100,211 people
• By 2030: 104,381 · +4.2%
• By 2040: 111,567 · +11.3%
• By 2050: 116,791 · +16.5%
• By 2075: 129,134 · +28.9%
• By 2100: 132,326 · +32.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Native American 21% Two or more races 12% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Rogers

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.0) · D 21.6% · R 76.6% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.9pp toward R · 2008: -44.1pp · 2024: -55.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.0 2020: R+54.9 2016: R+56.3 2012: R+50.1 2008: R+44.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 90.30%
• Current HPI: 353.0
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OK)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	3	$48B

Price history

+62.5% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-26 Pending — MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2026-04-24 Listed $169,000 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2022-06-20 Sold (Public Records) $150,000 Public Records
• 2022-06-16 Sold (MLS) $150,000 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2022-05-03 Pending — MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2022-04-28 Listed $149,900 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2006-05-05 Listing Removed — MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2006-01-26 Listing Removed — MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2006-01-25 Listed $98,500 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2005-07-25 Listed $104,000 MLS Technology, Inc.

Property tax history

+7.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $733 · +1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.