18238 W Lupine Ave

Goodyear, AZ 85338

$494,990F

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,807 sqft · Built 2026 · Land · Pending · 20 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,770/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,596
• Tax + insurance: −$825
• HOA: −$125
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$582
• Net cashflow: $-1,357/mo
• Annual: $-16,285/yr
• Cap rate: 3.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.75%
• DSCR: 0.48
• 1% rule: 0.56%
• Cash to close: $138,597

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $495k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-16k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $299k (39.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $277k (44.0% below list).
• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($488k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $277k (44.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#15 in AZ, #3,737 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: health & safety D+, cost of living D, amenities F.
• Liberty Elementary District (4266) (rural): math 26% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #100 of 249 in AZ (top 40%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Las Brisas Academy (math 29% / reading 33%, grade F, #525 of 1,109 statewide, top 48%, 655 students, 47% FRL); Estrella Foothills High School (math 29% / reading 41%, grade F, #93 of 381 statewide, top 25%, 1,398 students, 28% FRL) — zoned schools at 37% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 1104 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 5→11/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($102k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.