18238 W Lupine Ave · Goodyear, AZ 85338

$494,990

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,807 sqft · Land · 20 Days on market

Built 2026 5,175 sqft lot $176/sqft · at area comps Est $480k · at est. $125/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +6.1/15.0
• Cash flow +4.1/30.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• 1% rule +0.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

AMAZING BRAND NEW HOME!!! Room for the whole Family!! BR/BA & Den downstairs, 4BR + Huge Loft Upstairs!!! KITCHEN w. Wall Oven/Microwave / Gas Stove Top, Over Perfect White Quartz Countertops!! Beautiful Wood Staircase, Large enough backyard to add your own Pool, but not necessary - Citrus Park has a COMMUNITY POOL, AND 3 PARKS!!!!

Key facts

• Wall oven
• Community pool
• 3 parks

Tags

• WALL OVEN
• GAS STOVE TOP
• WHITE QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• BEAUTIFUL WOOD STAIRCASE
• COMMUNITY POOL
• 3 PARKS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size approximately 5,175 (source: assessor)
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of $125 covering grounds maintenance; Association rules restrict visible trucks, trailers, RVs, and boats; Community amenities include pool, pickleball courts, playground, and biking/walking paths

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces; 2 open parking spaces; 2-car garage with garage door opener
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer (sewer in and connected)
• Home design: Single-family residence; Fee simple ownership; Complete spec home
• Construction: Stucco and wood frame construction; Blown cellulose insulation; Painted exterior; Tile roof; Building area per builder
• Exterior features: Sprinklers in front; Desert front yard; Dirt backyard; City-maintained road; Block fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Kitchen island; Pantry; Walk-in pantry; Dishwasher; Built-in electric oven; Disposal; Breakfast bar
• Bedrooms: Up to 7 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Heat pump cooling; Has heating and cooling
• Interior features: High-speed internet; Double vanity; Upstairs living area; Breakfast bar; 9+ foot flat ceilings; Kitchen island; Pantry; Energy Star qualified windows with vinyl frames; Dual-pane windows; Multi-zone energy efficient system
• Laundry & utility: Upstairs laundry; Energy Star rated (see remarks)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $495k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-16k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $299k (39.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $277k (44.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $277k (44.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#15 in AZ, #3,737 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: health & safety D+, cost of living D, amenities F.
• Liberty Elementary District (4266) (rural): math 26% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #100 of 249 in AZ (top 40%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Las Brisas Academy (math 29% / reading 33%, grade F, #525 of 1,109 statewide, top 48%, 655 students, 47% FRL); Estrella Foothills High School (math 29% / reading 41%, grade F, #93 of 381 statewide, top 25%, 1,398 students, 28% FRL) — zoned schools at 37% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 1104 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($102k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($488k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 5→11/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $277,047 (44.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.56% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.75%
• DSCR: 0.48
• GRM: 14.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $480,346
• List price: $494,990
• Delta: 3.05%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -41.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.26×
• Total profit: $-174,644
• Equity at exit: $73,805

10-year hold

• IRR: -91.4%
• Equity multiple: -1.12×
• Total profit: $-294,270
• Equity at exit: $42,798

Cash invested: $138,597 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85338

• Home prices YoY: -23.9%
• Rents YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 1104
• Price-to-rent: 14.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,770 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,596
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$619 /mo · $7,425/yr
• Insurance: −$206
• HOA: −$125
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$582
• Net cashflow: $-1,357

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,488

Max offer price $298,616

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,015	-5% $-1,186	+0% $-1,357	+5% $-1,528	+10% $-1,699
Rent	-10% $-1,576	-5% $-1,467	+0% $-1,357	+5% $-1,248	+10% $-1,138
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,108	-0.5pp $-1,231	base $-1,357	+0.5pp $-1,485	+1.0pp $-1,616

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $123,748
• Closing costs: $14,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3150 S 180th Ln Goodyear, AZ	4.0	3.0	2083	$2,300	$1.10	45d	1	0.29mi
17954 W Raymond St Goodyear, AZ	5.0	3.0	3466	$2,950	$0.85	3d	1	0.44mi
18649 W Williams St Goodyear, AZ	4.0	2.5	2822	$2,695	$0.95	6d	1	0.55mi
18649 W Williams St Goodyear, AZ	4.0	2.5	2822	$2,695	$0.95	3d	1	0.55mi
18233 W Pueblo Ave Goodyear, AZ	4.0	3.0	2100	$2,300	$1.10	0d	1	0.62mi
4119 S 186th Ave Goodyear, AZ	4.0	3.0	2977	$2,350	$0.79	45d	1	0.63mi
2506 S 186th Dr Goodyear, AZ	4.0	3.0	3100	$30,000	$9.68	0d	1	0.71mi
3422 S 176th Dr Goodyear, AZ	4.0	3.0	2647	$3,350	$1.27	0d	1	0.78mi
17458 W Hilton Ave Goodyear, AZ	4.0	2.5	2489	$2,351	$0.94	0d	1	1.24mi
1613 S 174th Ln Goodyear, AZ	5.0	3.0	2999	$2,999	$1.00	0d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $125 · $1,500/yr
• Likely covers: gaspool

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-09
   listed $494,990 Active 611-char remark
2. 2026-05-05
   listed $494,990 Active 338-char remark
3. 2025-06-27
   soldstatus $25,574,537
4. 2024-01-04
   soldstatus $26,920,329

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 5 d/yr ≥113°F today · 11 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,246
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,727
• − Property taxes: −$7,425
• − Insurance: −$2,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,660
• − Management: −$2,660
• − HOA: −$1,500
• − Depreciation: −$14,400
• Taxable loss: −$25,600
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,144
• After-tax cash flow: $-10,141/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Liberty Elementary District (4266)
• NCES district ID: 0404320
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $71,731
• Composite: 27.84/100
• National rank: #6881
• State rank: #100 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Goodyear

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #15
• US rank: #3737

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B Cost of living D Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Goodyear, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 107,865
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 67,451
• Household income: $101,744
• Rent vs Own: 22.7% rent · 77.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1300.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 39% Two or more races 19% Black 6% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.22%
• Current HPI: 252.0828
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.66%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-96.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Sold (Public Records) $825,482 Public Records
• 2026-05-25 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-05-05 Listed $494,990 ARMLS
• 2025-06-27 Sold (Public Records) $25,574,537 Public Records
• 2024-01-04 Sold (Public Records) $26,920,329 Public Records

Property tax history

-42.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $26 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.