10285 Heritage Bay Blvd #817

Heritage Bay, FL 34120

$295,000C+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,232 sqft · Built 2006 · Condo · Active · 234 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,051/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,547
• Tax + insurance: −$629
• HOA: −$1,251
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,061
• Net cashflow: $563/mo
• Annual: $6,760/yr
• Cap rate: 9.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.39%
• DSCR: 1.46
• 1% rule: 1.71%
• Cash to close: $82,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $295k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $563 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $295k).
• It's been on market 234 days — a 12% lower offer ($260k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $260k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Corkscrew Elementary School (math 76% / reading 73%, grade A, #230 of 2,144 statewide, top 12%, 863 students, 35% FRL); Oakridge Middle School (math 75% / reading 67%, grade A, #59 of 571 statewide, top 11%, 1,183 students, 26% FRL); Gulf Coast High School (math 57% / reading 68%, grade B-, #93 of 667 statewide, top 14%, 2,447 students, 20% FRL) — zoned schools average 27% FRL vs 55% district-wide (28 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $152/mo; HOA is 25% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1132 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 8 sale attempts since 17y ago; this cycle's ask is 5264% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AH (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→32/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $5,051/mo this rent would consume 65% of the median local household income ($94k/yr) (locally 409% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 234 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
• What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?