17910 Old Monte Rio Rd

Guerneville, CA 95446

$675,000C

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,740 sqft · Built 1923 · MultiFamily · Active · 108 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $7,295/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,540
• Tax + insurance: −$1,018
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,532
• Net cashflow: $1,205/mo
• Annual: $14,461/yr
• Cap rate: 8.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.65%
• DSCR: 1.34
• 1% rule: 1.08%
• Cash to close: $189,000

Investor read

• This is a 3 × 3-bed/3.0-bath units multifamily listed at $675k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive. Per door: $402/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($7k rent vs $675k).
• It's been on market 108 days — a 9% lower offer ($614k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $614k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $20k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#666 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A-, employment B; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• West Sonoma County Union High (suburban): math 43% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #143 of 517 in CA (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1923 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 82 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,039 units permitted in Sonoma County in 2024 (185 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sonoma County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $161k; list at $675k implies a 319% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 2.1% in Guerneville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $7,295/mo this rent would consume 102% of the median local household income ($86k/yr) (locally 242% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 108 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1923 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.