17910 Old Monte Rio Rd · Guerneville, CA 95446

$675,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,740 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 108 Days on market

Built 1923 6,050 sqft lot Est $673k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.1/30.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.4/15.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 3 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

Great Investment Opportunity for this fixer. Duplex plus a detached cottage. Nice patio areas, stone walkways,decks and detached garage.

Key facts

• Private deck
• Updated bathrooms
• Updated kitchens

Tags

• PRIVATELY SITUATED
• UPDATED KITCHENS
• UPDATED BATHROOMS
• ON-SITE LAUNDRY
• PRIVATE DECK
• PARTIAL RIVER VIEWS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage (1 garage space); Total parking for 3 vehicles
• Security: Carbon monoxide detector
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Residential income property (triplex); Two levels; Updated/remodeled condition (varies by unit)
• Construction: Composition roof
• Exterior features: Private lot; Balcony/Deck

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen details vary by unit
• Bedrooms: Unit 1: 2 bedrooms; Unit 2: studio; Unit 3: 1 bedroom
• Bathrooms: Unit 1: 1 full bathroom; Unit 2: 1 full bathroom; Unit 3: (bathroom count not provided)
• Heating & cooling: Wall furnace heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: In-unit and common-area conditions vary by unit; Carbon monoxide detector
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located in common area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3 × 3-bed/3.0-bath units multifamily listed at $675k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive. Per door: $402/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($7k rent vs $675k).
• Recommended offer: $614k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 2.1% in Guerneville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#666 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A-, employment B; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• West Sonoma County Union High (suburban): math 43% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #143 of 517 in CA (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 82 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,039 units permitted in Sonoma County in 2024 (185 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $7,295/mo this rent would consume 102% of the median local household income ($86k/yr) (locally 242% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $20k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sonoma County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 108 days — a 9% lower offer ($614k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $161k; list at $675k implies a 319% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1923 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $614,250 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 108 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1923 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.65%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $673,380
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17408 River Ln	0.25mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,900 (+9%)	21mo	$736,000	$387	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-32,582
• Equity at exit: $100,645

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.37×
• Total profit: $70,640
• Equity at exit: $58,362

Cash invested: $189,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95446

• Active inventory: 82
• Price-to-rent: 23.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $7,295 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,540
• Tax from tax record: −$737 /mo · $8,843/yr
• Insurance: −$281
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,532
• Net cashflow: $1,205

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,770

Max offer price $675,000

Occupancy floor 78%

3-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 3× units	3	3	$7,296
Total (3 units)			$7,295

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $168,750
• Closing costs: $20,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16799 Center Way Guerneville, CA	5.0	2.0	2040	$6,900	$3.38	12d	1	0.91mi

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $675,000 Active 108 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $675,000 Active 107 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $675,000 Active 106 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $675,000 Active 105 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $675,000 Active 103 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $675,000 Active 102 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $675,000 Active 100 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $675,000 Active 99 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $675,000 Active 98 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $675,000 Active 97 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $675,000 Active 94 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $675,000 Active 93 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $675,000 Active 92 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $675,000 Active 91 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $675,000 Active 90 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $675,000 Active 89 DOM
17. 2026-03-02
    listed $675,000 Active
18. 2016-09-05
    historical Off-Market
19. 2016-03-21
    listed $399,000 Active
20. 2013-02-28
    soldstatus $161,000 Sold 136-char remark

    Show marketing remark (136 chars)

    Great Investment Opportunity for this fixer. Duplex plus a detached cottage. Nice patio areas, stone walkways,decks and detached garage.

21. 2013-02-28
    soldstatus $161,000

    Show marketing remark (136 chars)

    Great Investment Opportunity for this fixer. Duplex plus a detached cottage. Nice patio areas, stone walkways,decks and detached garage.

22. 2013-02-12
    status Contingent (Show) 136-char remark

    Show marketing remark (136 chars)

    Great Investment Opportunity for this fixer. Duplex plus a detached cottage. Nice patio areas, stone walkways,decks and detached garage.

23. 2013-01-30
    price $170,100 136-char remark

    Show marketing remark (136 chars)

    Great Investment Opportunity for this fixer. Duplex plus a detached cottage. Nice patio areas, stone walkways,decks and detached garage.

24. 2013-01-23
    listed $170,000 Active 136-char remark

    Show marketing remark (136 chars)

    Great Investment Opportunity for this fixer. Duplex plus a detached cottage. Nice patio areas, stone walkways,decks and detached garage.

25. 2006-06-29
    soldstatus $379,500
26. 2001-11-20
    soldstatus $235,000
27. 2000-03-01
    soldstatus $181,000
28. 1997-08-11
    soldstatus $118,000
29. 1988-05-09
    soldstatus $95,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,843 · $737/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,843 · $737/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥87°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 17 unhealthy d/yr today · 19 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $87,540
• − Mortgage interest: −$37,810
• − Property taxes: −$8,843
• − Insurance: −$3,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$7,003
• − Management: −$7,003
• − Depreciation: −$19,636
• Taxable income: $3,868
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$928
• After-tax cash flow: $13,533/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: West Sonoma County Union High
• NCES district ID: 0602670
• Math proficiency: 43% ▲ 16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $61,845
• Composite: 43.45/100
• National rank: #3006
• State rank: #143 of 517 in CA

Livability — Guerneville

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #666
• US rank: #20615

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A- Employment B Housing B- Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Guerneville, CA
• County: Sonoma County · 449,805 people
• City population: 4,607
• Metro: Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA
• Population (ZIP): 4,607
• Household income: $85,833
• Rent vs Own: 31.8% rent · 68.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 242.0

Population outlook (Sonoma County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 539,935 people
• By 2030: 554,870 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 573,262 · +6.2%
• By 2050: 580,715 · +7.6%
• By 2075: 579,229 · +7.3%
• By 2100: 547,835 · +1.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 13% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 7% Slovak 5% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sonoma

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+46.2) · D 71.4% · R 25.2% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.4pp toward R · 2008: 49.6pp · 2024: 46.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+46.2 2020: D+51.5 2016: D+47.9 2012: D+44.9 2008: D+49.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -578.26%
• Current HPI: 267.138
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+610.5% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-02 Listed $675,000 BAREIS
• 2016-09-05 Delisted — BAREIS
• 2016-03-21 Listed $399,000 BAREIS
• 2013-02-28 Sold (Public Records) $161,000 Public Records
• 2013-02-28 Sold (MLS) $161,000 BAREIS
• 2013-02-12 Pending — BAREIS
• 2013-01-30 Price Changed $170,100 BAREIS
• 2013-01-23 Listed $170,000 BAREIS
• 2006-06-29 Sold (Public Records) $379,500 Public Records
• 2001-11-20 Sold (Public Records) $235,000 Public Records
• 2000-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $181,000 Public Records
• 1997-08-11 Sold (Public Records) $118,000 Public Records
• 1988-05-09 Sold (Public Records) $95,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,843 · +6.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.