132 Magnolia Creek Walk

Nocatee, FL 32081

$449,000D-

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,107 sqft · Built 2013 · SingleFamily · Active · 135 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,272/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,355
• Tax + insurance: −$810
• HOA: −$300
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$687
• Net cashflow: $-880/mo
• Annual: $-10,564/yr
• Cap rate: 3.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.40%
• DSCR: 0.63
• 1% rule: 0.73%
• Cash to close: $125,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $449k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-880 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $293k (34.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $327k (27.1% below list).
• It's been on market 135 days — a 12% lower offer ($395k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $293k (34.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $908 of equity ($3k loan paydown + $-2k appreciation (-0.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#425 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• St. Johns (rural): math 75% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #2 of 73 in FL (top 3%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 650 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 9d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 5,575 units permitted in St. Johns County in 2024 (584 in 5+ unit buildings).
• St. Johns County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $250k; list at $449k implies a 80% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 3.9% vs local median 2.5% in Nocatee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 135 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.