132 Magnolia Creek Walk · Nocatee, FL 32081

$449,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,107 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 132 Days on market

Built 2013 4,791 sqft lot $213/sqft · 6% below area Est $476k · 6% under $300/mo HOA · 9% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.1/15.0
• Schools +6.4/10.0
• Cash flow +5.9/30.0
• Appreciation +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Gorgeous townhouse in Nocatee--LOWEST-PRICED 2107-SqFt w/preserve & pond views--most desirable location in the neighborhood. INSIDE, you'll find a spacious layout featuring a LARGE PRIMARY BEDROOM with huge walk-in closet, separate tub & shower, OPEN KITCHEN/FAMILY ROOM has premium cabinets & countertops, stainless steel. St Johns County SCHOOL DISTRICT #1 in FLORIDA, & you're near WONDERFUL COMMUNITY AMENITIES including multiple pools, nearby dining options, LESS THAN 15 MIN to THE BEACH. Nocatee is ideally nestled between historic St Augustine & Jacksonville, offering a perfect balance of charm & convenience. Dishwasher, disposal, water softener, & tankless water heater 3 years new. New washing machine. Fresh interior & exterior paint. LARGE LOT (see parcel map). Enjoy RARE POND-to-PRESERVE VIEWS from back & peaceful preserve views in front, providing both privacy & natural scenery plus the convenience of EXTRA PARKING directly across the street. Don't miss this opportunity.

Key facts

• View of pond
• Highly rated schools
• Water softener

Tags

• WORLD-CLASS AMENITIES
• HIGHLY RATED SCHOOLS
• EASY DRIVE TO BEACHES
• VIEW OF POND
• PAVER DRIVEWAY
• WATER SOFTENER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $449k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-880 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $293k (34.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $327k (27.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $293k (34.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 3.9% vs local median 2.5% in Nocatee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#425 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• St. Johns (rural): math 75% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #2 of 73 in FL (top 3%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 652 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 8d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 5,575 units permitted in St. Johns County in 2024 (584 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $908 of equity ($3k loan paydown + $-2k appreciation (-0.5% local appreciation)).
• St. Johns County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 132 days — a 12% lower offer ($395k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $250k; list at $449k implies a 80% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $293,480 (34.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 132 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.40%
• DSCR: 0.63
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $476,396
• List price: $449,000
• Delta: -5.75%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
302 Paradise Valley Dr	0.38mi	3/2.5	2,109 (+0%)	2mo	$599,000	$284	79
208 Cool Spgs Ave	0.52mi	3/3.0	2,167 (+3%)	0mo	$560,000	$258	71
139 Rialto Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0	2,150 (+2%)	3mo	$615,000	$286	64
216 Cool Springs Ave	0.52mi	3/3.0	2,281 (+8%)	1mo	$595,000	$261	61
56 Bloom Ln	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,876 (-11%)	1mo	$490,000	$261	58
206 Park Lake Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	2,013 (-4%)	2mo	$555,000	$276	54
100 Castlebrook Ln	0.60mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,224 (+6%)	2mo	$705,000	$317	52
144 Tavernier Dr	0.75mi	3/2.0	2,232 (+6%)	0mo	$579,000	$259	51
88 Cabana Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,800 (-15%)	2mo	$522,500	$290	49
807 Nocatee Village Dr	0.46mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,400 (+14%)	3mo	$640,000	$267	46
174 Treasure Harbor Dr	0.69mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,317 (+10%)	1mo	$610,000	$263	45
57 Seaport Ln	0.61mi	3/2.5	1,815 (-14%)	3mo	$519,000	$286	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.49% appreciation · 1.13% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-85,196
• Equity at exit: $119,505

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-121,555
• Equity at exit: $135,239

Cash invested: $125,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32081

• Home prices YoY: -0.3%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 652
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,272 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,355
• Tax from tax record: −$623 /mo · $7,480/yr
• Insurance: −$187
• HOA: −$300
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$687
• Net cashflow: $-880

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,386

Max offer price $293,480

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $112,250
• Closing costs: $13,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
48 Pine Shadow Pkwy Ponte Vedra, FL	3.0	2.5	1134	$3,887	$3.43	3d	46	0.51mi
229 Cool Springs Ave Ponte Vedra, FL	3.0	3.0	2207	$3,700	$1.68	24d	1	0.55mi
36 Banfield Ln Ponte Vedra, FL	3.0	2.5	1680	$3,200	$1.90	8d	1	0.59mi
440 Burbank Ave Ponte Vedra, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1141	$2,807	$2.46	3d	25	1.12mi
78 Wayfare Ln Ponte Vedra, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$3,100	$1.70	24d	1	1.33mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $300 · $3,600/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $449,000 Active 132 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $449,000 Active 131 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $449,000 Active 130 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $449,000 Active 129 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $449,000 Active 127 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $459,000 Active 126 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $459,000 Active 123 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $459,000 Active 122 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $459,000 Active 121 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $459,000 Active 117 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $459,000 Active 116 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $459,000 Active 115 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $459,000 Active 114 DOM
14. 2026-04-08
    price $459,000 1038-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1038 chars)

    Gorgeous townhouse in Nocatee--LOWEST-PRICED 2107-SqFt w/preserve & pond views--most desirable location in the neighborhood. INSIDE, you'll find a spacious layout featuring a LARGE PRIMARY BEDROOM with huge walk-in closet, separate tub & shower, OPEN KITCHEN/FAMILY ROOM has premium cabinets & countertops, stainless steel. St Johns County SCHOOL DISTRICT #1 in FLORIDA, & you're near WONDERFUL COMMUNITY AMENITIES including multiple pools, nearby dining options, LESS THAN 15 MIN to THE BEACH. Nocatee is ideally nestled between historic St Augustine & Jacksonville, offering a perfect balance of charm & convenience. Dishwasher, disposal, water softener, & tankless water heater 3 years new. New washing machine. Fresh interior & exterior paint. LARGE LOT (see parcel map). Enjoy RARE POND-to-PRESERVE VIEWS from back & peaceful preserve views in front, providing both privacy & natural scenery plus the convenience of EXTRA PARKING directly across the street. Don't miss this opportunity.

15. 2026-03-06
    price $474,000 1038-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1038 chars)

    Gorgeous townhouse in Nocatee--LOWEST-PRICED 2107-SqFt w/preserve & pond views--most desirable location in the neighborhood. INSIDE, you'll find a spacious layout featuring a LARGE PRIMARY BEDROOM with huge walk-in closet, separate tub & shower, OPEN KITCHEN/FAMILY ROOM has premium cabinets & countertops, stainless steel. St Johns County SCHOOL DISTRICT #1 in FLORIDA, & you're near WONDERFUL COMMUNITY AMENITIES including multiple pools, nearby dining options, LESS THAN 15 MIN to THE BEACH. Nocatee is ideally nestled between historic St Augustine & Jacksonville, offering a perfect balance of charm & convenience. Dishwasher, disposal, water softener, & tankless water heater 3 years new. New washing machine. Fresh interior & exterior paint. LARGE LOT (see parcel map). Enjoy RARE POND-to-PRESERVE VIEWS from back & peaceful preserve views in front, providing both privacy & natural scenery plus the convenience of EXTRA PARKING directly across the street. Don't miss this opportunity.

16. 2026-02-07
    listed $489,000 Active 1038-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1038 chars)

    Gorgeous townhouse in Nocatee--LOWEST-PRICED 2107-SqFt w/preserve & pond views--most desirable location in the neighborhood. INSIDE, you'll find a spacious layout featuring a LARGE PRIMARY BEDROOM with huge walk-in closet, separate tub & shower, OPEN KITCHEN/FAMILY ROOM has premium cabinets & countertops, stainless steel. St Johns County SCHOOL DISTRICT #1 in FLORIDA, & you're near WONDERFUL COMMUNITY AMENITIES including multiple pools, nearby dining options, LESS THAN 15 MIN to THE BEACH. Nocatee is ideally nestled between historic St Augustine & Jacksonville, offering a perfect balance of charm & convenience. Dishwasher, disposal, water softener, & tankless water heater 3 years new. New washing machine. Fresh interior & exterior paint. LARGE LOT (see parcel map). Enjoy RARE POND-to-PRESERVE VIEWS from back & peaceful preserve views in front, providing both privacy & natural scenery plus the convenience of EXTRA PARKING directly across the street. Don't miss this opportunity.

17. 2024-07-09
    historical $2,650
18. 2024-06-30
    listed $2,650
19. 2024-06-22
    historical $2,650
20. 2024-06-08
    price $2,650
21. 2024-05-04
    price $2,850
22. 2024-04-01
    listed $3,100
23. 2016-02-01
    soldstatus $250,000
24. 2013-11-07
    soldstatus $198,274 215-char remark

    Show marketing remark (215 chars)

    All stainless appliances included, walk-in shower with separate tub, open handrails with wood steps, many other upgrades included! Dream Finders Homes pays ALL closing costs and prepaids when using preferred lender!

25. 2013-05-28
    listed $194,305 215-char remark

    Show marketing remark (215 chars)

    All stainless appliances included, walk-in shower with separate tub, open handrails with wood steps, many other upgrades included! Dream Finders Homes pays ALL closing costs and prepaids when using preferred lender!

26. 2012-07-16
    soldstatus $1,200,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,480 · $623/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,480 · $623/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,260
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,151
• − Property taxes: −$7,480
• − Insurance: −$2,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,141
• − Management: −$3,141
• − HOA: −$3,600
• − Depreciation: −$13,062
• Taxable loss: −$18,559
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,454
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,110/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Johns
• NCES district ID: 1201740
• Math proficiency: 75% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $66,842
• Composite: 64.31/100
• National rank: #556
• State rank: #2 of 73 in FL

Livability — Nocatee

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #425
• US rank: #7550

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Nocatee, FL
• County: Saint Johns County · 301,599 people
• City population: 27,365
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 29,784
• Household income: $131,624
• Rent vs Own: 18.3% rent · 81.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 729.0

Population outlook (St. Johns County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 303,941 people
• By 2030: 342,590 · +12.7%
• By 2040: 417,328 · +37.3%
• By 2050: 487,011 · +60.2%
• By 2075: 635,395 · +109.1%
• By 2100: 717,469 · +136.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 5% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Romanian 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Johns

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.4) · D 33.9% · R 65.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: -31.6pp · 2024: -31.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.4 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+33.4 2012: R+37.8 2008: R+31.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.49%
• Current HPI: 145.8421
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.13%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-61.8% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $459,000 realMLS
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $474,000 realMLS
• 2026-02-07 Listed $489,000 realMLS
• 2024-07-09 Rental Removed $2,650 NEFLMLS
• 2024-06-30 Listed for Rent $2,650 NEFLMLS
• 2024-06-22 Rental Removed $2,650 NEFLMLS
• 2024-06-08 Price Changed $2,650 NEFLMLS
• 2024-05-04 Price Changed $2,850 NEFLMLS
• 2024-04-01 Listed for Rent $3,100 NEFLMLS
• 2016-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $250,000 Public Records
• 2013-11-07 Sold (MLS) $198,274 realMLS
• 2013-05-28 Listed $194,305 realMLS
• 2012-07-16 Sold (Public Records) $1,200,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,480 · +10.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.