Lakeline Plan

Lakewood Village, TX 75068

$798,990F

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 3,128 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 277 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,247/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,266
• Tax + insurance: −$1,356
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$682
• Net cashflow: $-3,056/mo
• Annual: $-36,678/yr
• Cap rate: 1.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -16.10%
• DSCR: 0.28
• 1% rule: 0.40%
• Cash to close: $227,774

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $799k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-37k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $371k (53.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $325k (59.4% below list).
• It's been on market 277 days — a 12% lower offer ($703k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $325k (59.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $24k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#968 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: cost of living D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Little Elm ISD (suburban): math 36% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #327 of 826 in TX (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Oak Point El (math 26% / reading 34%, grade F, #2,500 of 4,322 statewide, top 58%, 952 students, 49% FRL); Little Elm H S (math 28% / reading 49%, grade F, #866 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 2,514 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.5%/yr); 1955 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 79d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($127k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 277 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 59% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.