Lakeline Plan · Lakewood Village, TX 75068

$798,990

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 3,128 sqft · SingleFamily · 277 Days on market

Excellent condition ↓ 21% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Cash flow +1.8/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Effortless style and livability inform every inch of The Hornbeam floor plan by David Weekley Homes in Northshore at Lakewood Village. The open family and dining spaces create a welcoming atmosphere that adapts beautifully to quiet evenings and festive gatherings. A large island anchors the kitchen, offering abundant prep space while maintaining seamless flow to the surrounding living areas. The covered porch extends your living experience outdoors, delivering a relaxing place to unwind just beyond the family and dining areas. The Owner's Retreat is privately positioned and features an en suite Owner's Bath and walk-in closet designed to maximize daily comfort. A guest suite and Jack-and-Jill bedrooms provide wonderful places for guests and growing families. The pair of studies and a light-isolated TV room supply plenty of room to dedicate to working from home or enjoying personal interests away from the main gathering spaces. Send the David Weekley Homes at Northshore Team a message to begin your #LivingWeekley adventure with this new home in Lakewood Village, Texas.

Key facts

• 3 garage spots
• Listed 276 days

Tags

• PROXIMITY TO LAKE LEWISVILLE
• NO HOA OR MUD PID TAX
• STUDENTS ATTEND LITTLE ELM ISD

🏗️ New construction. The $798,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $813,478.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $799k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-37k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $371k (53.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $325k (59.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $325k (59.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#968 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: cost of living D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Little Elm ISD (suburban): math 36% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #327 of 826 in TX (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Oak Point El (math 26% / reading 34%, grade F, #2,500 of 4,322 statewide, top 58%, 952 students, 49% FRL); Little Elm H S (math 28% / reading 49%, grade F, #866 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 2,514 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.5%/yr); 1955 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 79d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($127k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $24k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 277 days — a 12% lower offer ($703k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $324,719 (59.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 277 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 59% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.40% ✗
• Cap rate: 1.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -16.10%
• DSCR: 0.28
• GRM: 20.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $813,478
• List price: $798,990
• Delta: -1.78%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2136 Lakeside Dr	0.19mi	4/3.5	3,003 (-4%)	1mo	$874,990	$291	83
2249 Village Trl	0.08mi	4/3.0	3,361 (+7%)	0mo	$801,966	$239	81
1501 Sunset Point Dr	0.38mi	4/3.5	3,118 (-0%)	5mo	$769,900	$247	78
2254 Village Trl	0.07mi	4/3.5	3,481 (+11%)	1mo	$930,609	$267	77
1309 Deer Point Dr	0.35mi	4/3.5	2,885 (-8%)	0mo	$749,900	$260	70
1113 Brookwood Dr	0.33mi	4/4.5	3,433 (+10%)	1mo	$880,900	$257	63
531 Wisteria St	0.49mi	5/4.0 (+1)	3,061 (-2%)	4mo	$560,685	$183	63
1421 Hidden Cove Dr	0.40mi	4/4.5	3,387 (+8%)	2mo	$957,000	$283	62
546 Chatham St	0.43mi	4/3.5	2,781 (-11%)	1mo	$573,000	$206	60
457 2 Pines Ln	0.47mi	4/3.5	2,717 (-13%)	3mo	$799,000	$294	54
530 Chatham St	0.48mi	4/4.5	3,507 (+12%)	0mo	$630,865	$180	53
189 Enclave Dr	0.63mi	5/4.5 (+1)	3,341 (+7%)	1mo	$685,000	$205	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -50.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.47×
• Total profit: $-335,955
• Equity at exit: $121,292

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -1.55×
• Total profit: $-579,788
• Equity at exit: $70,335

Cash invested: $227,774 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 137 active · 61 under contract
• Months of supply: 17.9 mo (6%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $719,990 ($231/sqft)
• Median days on market: 236 d
• This list price: 60% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +12.7% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75068

• Home prices YoY: -25.5%
• Rents YoY: -1.5%
• Active inventory: 1955
• Price-to-rent: 20.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,247 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,266
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$1,017 /mo · $12,202/yr
• Insurance: −$339
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$682
• Net cashflow: $-3,056

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,116

Max offer price $371,200

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-2,494	-5% $-2,775	+0% $-3,056	+5% $-3,338	+10% $-3,619
Rent	-10% $-3,313	-5% $-3,185	+0% $-3,056	+5% $-2,928	+10% $-2,800
Rate	-1.0pp $-2,647	-0.5pp $-2,850	base $-3,056	+0.5pp $-3,267	+1.0pp $-3,482

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $203,370
• Closing costs: $24,404
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
447 Holly Rd Lakewood Village, TX	4.0	3.5	2301	$2,950	$1.28	45d	1	0.46mi
329 Magnolia St Little Elm, TX	5.0	4.5	2536	$3,650	$1.44	99d	1	0.73mi
329 Magnolia St Little Elm, TX	5.0	4.5	2536	$3,650	$1.44	0d	1	0.73mi
329 Magnolia St Little Elm, TX	5.0	4.5	2536	$4,300	$1.70	159d	1	0.73mi
825 Carrie Ln Unit 1028451P Lakewood Village, TX	4.0	3.5	3552	$21,302	$6.00	163d	1	0.75mi
825 Carrie Ln Little Elm, TX	4.0	3.5	3560	$15,000	$4.21	0d	1	0.75mi
3803 Fishermans Cv Little Elm, TX	4.0	3.5	2953	$3,000	$1.02	165d	1	0.86mi
201 Baker St Oak Point, TX	3.0	2.5	2124	$2,750	$1.29	78d	1	0.88mi
136 Glenwood Dr Little Elm, TX	4.0	3.5	2568	$3,000	$1.17	88d	1	0.90mi
124 Savannah Ln Little Elm, TX	3.0	2.0	2129	$2,600	$1.22	26d	1	0.90mi
112 Baker St Little Elm, TX	4.0	3.5	2568	$2,950	$1.15	109d	1	0.93mi
112 Baker St Little Elm, TX	4.0	3.5	2568	$2,850	$1.11	104d	1	0.93mi
2415 W Eldorado Pkwy Little Elm, TX	3.0	2.5	3384	$2,850	$0.84	7d	1	0.96mi
465 Peninsula Dr Little Elm, TX	4.0	3.0	2437	$3,950	$1.62	37d	1	0.98mi
4412 W Dickson Ln Little Elm, TX	3.0	2.5	2815	$3,000	$1.07	9d	1	1.08mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $798,990 Active 277 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $798,990 Active 276 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $798,990 Active 275 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $798,990 Active 274 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $798,990 Active 273 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $798,990 Active 271 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $798,990 Active 270 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $798,990 Active 269 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $798,990 Active 268 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $798,990 Active 267 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $798,990 Active 266 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $798,990 Active 265 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $798,990 Active 264 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $798,990 Active 263 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $798,990 Active 262 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $798,990 Active 261 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $798,990 Active 260 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $798,990 Active 259 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $798,990 Active 258 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $798,990 Active 257 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $798,990 Active 256 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $798,990 Active 255 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $798,990 Active 254 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $798,990 Active 253 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $798,990 Active 252 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $798,990 Active 251 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $798,990 Active 250 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $798,990 Active 249 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $798,990 Active 248 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $798,990 Active 247 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $798,990 Active 246 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $798,990 Active 245 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $798,990 Active 244 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $798,990 Active 243 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $798,990 Active 242 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $798,990 Active 241 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $798,990 Active 240 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $798,990 Active 239 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $798,990 Active 238 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $798,990 Active 237 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $798,990 Active 236 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $798,990 Active 235 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $798,990 Active 234 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $798,990 Active 233 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $798,990 Active 232 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $798,990 Active 231 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $798,990 Active 230 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $798,990 Active 229 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $798,990 Active 228 DOM
50. 2026-09-19
    days on market $798,990 Active 227 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,966
• − Mortgage interest: −$45,567
• − Property taxes: −$12,202
• − Insurance: −$4,067
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,117
• − Management: −$3,117
• − Depreciation: −$23,665
• Taxable loss: −$52,770
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$12,665
• After-tax cash flow: $-24,013/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It is move-in ready and would benefit from minor aesthetic updates to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both New kitchen backsplash — Enhances functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both New window treatments — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 35/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Oak Point El F TX #2,500/4,322 Nat'l #26,438/41,679 Middle Jerry R Walker Middle F TX #736/1,662 Nat'l #6,708/14,009 High Little Elm H S F TX #866/1,632 Nat'l #8,796/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Little Elm ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827720
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $76,400
• Composite: 36.17/100
• National rank: #4734
• State rank: #327 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — Lakewood Village

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #968
• US rank: #17186

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakewood Village, TX
• County: Denton County · 1,053,010 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 72,710
• Household income: $126,635
• Rent vs Own: 19.8% rent · 80.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.74)
• Race & ethnicity: White 40% Hispanic / Latino 23% Black 19% Two or more races 15% Asian 12% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Asian/Pacific 5% Other Indo-European 4%

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Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -85.41%
• Current HPI: 249.755
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.50%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-20.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $793,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $788,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-06 Price Changed $785,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-04 Listed $999,999 Zillow