40 Princeton Pl

Orchard Park, NY 14127

$499,000C-

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,176 sqft · Built 1950 · MultiFamily · Pending · 12 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,401/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,617
• Tax + insurance: −$813
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,134
• Net cashflow: $837/mo
• Annual: $10,043/yr
• Cap rate: 8.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.19%
• DSCR: 1.32
• 1% rule: 1.08%
• Cash to close: $139,720

Investor read

• This is a 3 × 3-bed/1.5-bath units multifamily listed at $499k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $837 ($10k/yr) — positive. Per door: $279/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $499k).
• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#39 in NY, #587 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: commute D+, cost of living D+, amenities F.
• Orchard Park Central School District (suburban): math 57% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #158 of 590 in NY (top 27%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: South Davis Elementary School (math 62% / reading 77%, grade A-, #447 of 2,108 statewide, top 24%, 394 students, 13% FRL); Orchard Park Middle School (math 26% / reading 69%, grade C-, #306 of 729 statewide, top 43%, 1,059 students, 15% FRL); Orchard Park High School (math 100% / reading 87%, grade A+, #141 of 1,100 statewide, top 13%, 1,385 students, 16% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 144 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Current owner paid $155k; list at $499k implies a 222% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 1.5% in Orchard Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $5,401/mo this rent would consume 59% of the median local household income ($109k/yr) (locally 428% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.