40 Princeton Pl · Orchard Park, NY 14127

$499,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,176 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1950 10,800 sqft lot Est $438k · 14% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.5/30.0
• DSCR +7.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +1.3/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 3 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

* * * * * LOCATION LOCATION LOCATION * * * * Highly Wanted VILLAGE of Orchard Park Location for this INCOME PRODUCING GEM. Two Driveways provide for hassle free parking. This THREE UNIT is perfect for the seasoned investor or the Owner Occupant who will have the tenants pay the mortgage. Orchard Park Schools make this the place to be to Raise your Family. The finished basement features Two Large Recreation rooms Perfect for Gatherings or the kids The FULL BATHROOM in the basement is a HUGE BONUS. NO showings until Friday June 12th 5pm / No negotiations until Tuesday June 16th 12pm The ONLY SHOWINGS will be at the OPEN HOUSES OPEN HOUSE FRIDAY J

Key facts

• Two driveways
• Full bathroom
• Income producing

Tags

• INCOME PRODUCING
• TWO DRIVEWAYS
• FINISHED BASEMENT
• TWO LARGE RECREATION ROOMS
• FULL BATHROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoned commercial
• Financial info: Multi-unit property (3 units total); Operating expenses include fuel and water/sewer; Owner pays water (per rental information / remarks)

Exterior

• Parking: Two or more parking spaces
• Utilities: Cable available; Public water connected; Sewer connected; Circuit breaker electrical service
• Home design: Two-story building; Existing structure
• Construction: Frame construction with vinyl siding; Copper plumbing; Asphalt roof; Poured foundation; Built previously (existing)
• Exterior features: Open porch; Corner lot; Near public transit; Rectangular residential lot; City street frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas water heater listed among equipment (specific kitchen appliances not detailed)
• Bedrooms: Property contains multiple units (3 total) — bedroom counts per unit not specified
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Hardwood; Laminate; Vinyl; Varies
• Bathrooms: Four full bathrooms (total)
• Heating & cooling: Gas heating with forced air; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceramic tile, hardwood, laminate, vinyl, and varied flooring throughout; Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Separate gas meters (2) and separate electric meters (3) indicating individual utility metering for units

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3 × 3-bed/1.5-bath units multifamily listed at $499k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $837 ($10k/yr) — positive. Per door: $279/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $499k).
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 1.5% in Orchard Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#39 in NY, #587 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: commute D+, cost of living D+, amenities F.
• Orchard Park Central School District (suburban): math 57% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #158 of 590 in NY (top 27%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: South Davis Elementary School (math 62% / reading 77%, grade A-, #447 of 2,108 statewide, top 24%, 394 students, 13% FRL); Orchard Park Middle School (math 26% / reading 69%, grade C-, #306 of 729 statewide, top 43%, 1,059 students, 15% FRL); Orchard Park High School (math 100% / reading 87%, grade A+, #141 of 1,100 statewide, top 13%, 1,385 students, 16% FRL).
• Market conditions: 144 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,401/mo this rent would consume 59% of the median local household income ($109k/yr) (locally 428% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $155k; list at $499k implies a 222% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $499,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
2. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
3. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.19%
• DSCR: 1.32
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $438,288
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4362 S Buffalo St	0.34mi	3/4.0 (-1)	2,908 (-8%)	2mo	$400,000	$138	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-27,488
• Equity at exit: $74,403

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.32×
• Total profit: $44,984
• Equity at exit: $43,144

Cash invested: $139,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14127

• Home prices YoY: -33.6%
• Active inventory: 144
• Price-to-rent: 23.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,401 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,617
• Tax from tax record: −$605 /mo · $7,262/yr
• Insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,134
• Net cashflow: $837

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,342

Max offer price $499,000

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,119	-5% $978	+0% $837	+5% $696	+10% $554
Rent	-10% $410	-5% $624	+0% $837	+5% $1,050	+10% $1,264
Rate	-1.0pp $1,088	-0.5pp $964	base $837	+0.5pp $708	+1.0pp $576

3-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 3× units	3	1.5	$5,400
Total (3 units)			$5,401

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $124,750
• Closing costs: $14,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $499,000 Pending 12 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $499,000 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $499,000 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $499,000 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $499,000 Active 8 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $499,000 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $499,000 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $499,000 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $499,000 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 699-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    listed $499,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $7,262 · $605/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,848 · $654/mo
• Expected delta: +$585/yr (+$49/mo · 8.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $64,812
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,952
• − Property taxes: −$7,262
• − Insurance: −$2,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,185
• − Management: −$5,185
• − Depreciation: −$14,516
• Taxable income: $2,217
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$532
• After-tax cash flow: $9,511/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Orchard Park Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3621900
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $79,354
• Composite: 57.97/100
• National rank: #1039
• State rank: #158 of 590 in NY

Livability — Orchard Park

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #39
• US rank: #587

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D+ Cost of living D+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Orchard Park, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 31,543
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 31,543
• Household income: $109,386
• Rent vs Own: 26.0% rent · 74.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 428.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 16% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -151.52%
• Current HPI: 298.7896
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+221.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $499,000 WNYREIS
• 2023-11-09 Sold (Public Records) $155,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,262 · +4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.