4650 Dellwood Ln

Beaumont, TX 77706

$159,900B

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,243 sqft · Built 1962 · SingleFamily · Pending · 15 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,292/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax + insurance: −$457
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$481
• Net cashflow: $515/mo
• Annual: $6,178/yr
• Cap rate: 10.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.80%
• DSCR: 1.61
• 1% rule: 1.43%
• Cash to close: $44,772

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $515 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $158k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#739 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Beaumont ISD (urban): math 14% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #789 of 826 in TX (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Regina Howell El (math 33% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,680 of 4,322 statewide, top 40%, 682 students, 58% FRL); Marshall Middle (math 17% / reading 25%, grade F, #1,387 of 1,662 statewide, top 85%, 711 students, 62% FRL); West Brook Sr H S (math 19% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,228 of 1,632 statewide, top 76%, 2,245 students, 58% FRL).
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 259 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 343 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.2% vs local median 5.3% in Beaumont — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($73k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.