14117 Hogeye

Prairie Grove, AR 72753

$109,000B-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · Built 1981 · Manufactured · Active · 93 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,330/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$572
• Tax + insurance: −$89
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$279
• Net cashflow: $390/mo
• Annual: $4,686/yr
• Cap rate: 10.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.35%
• DSCR: 1.68
• 1% rule: 1.22%
• Cash to close: $30,520

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $109k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $390 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $109k).
• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($99k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $99k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $754 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#99 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Prairie Grove School District (town): math 43% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #50 of 238 in AR (top 21%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 290 active listings in the ZIP; 3,494 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (1,497 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Washington County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $109k implies a 336% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 10.6% vs local median 3.6% in Prairie Grove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.