14117 Hogeye · Prairie Grove, AR 72753

$109,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · Manufactured public records · 90 Days on market

Built 1981 4.63 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.5/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

4.63 Acres +/- in an excellent location just outside of Prairie Grove. 5 minutes to Prairie Grove & 2 minutes to the intersection in Hogeye. The property is full of natural stone, hardwood, cedar & wildlife. On the property is a 1,008 sqft manufactured home. House can be finished or torn down to build something new. Electric, city water & septic on site. Mostly wooded with the exception of the current house area. Gorgeous views from the top would make a nice place to build. Little to no value placed on the house. It needs work to be livable. 15 minute scenic drive to I-49. 20/25 minutes to the U of A. This home will not go FHA/VA/RD. Come check it out.

Key facts

• Natural stone
• Hardwood
• Gorgeous views

Tags

• EXCELLENT LOCATION
• NATURAL STONE
• HARDWOOD
• CEDAR
• GORGEOUS VIEWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $109k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $390 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $109k).
• Recommended offer: $102k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.6% vs local median 3.7% in Prairie Grove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#99 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Prairie Grove School District (town): math 43% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #50 of 238 in AR (top 21%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 283 active listings in the ZIP; 3,494 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (1,497 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $754 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Washington County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($102k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $109k implies a 336% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $102,460 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.35%
• DSCR: 1.68
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.23×
• Total profit: $7,171
• Equity at exit: $16,252

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.25×
• Total profit: $38,120
• Equity at exit: $9,424

Cash invested: $30,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72753

• Home prices YoY: -15.1%
• Active inventory: 283
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,330 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$572
• Tax from tax record: −$43 /mo · $521/yr
• Insurance: −$45
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$279
• Net cashflow: $390

Break-even live

Break-even rent $836

Max offer price $109,000

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $452	-5% $421	+0% $390	+5% $360	+10% $329
Rent	-10% $285	-5% $338	+0% $390	+5% $443	+10% $496
Rate	-1.0pp $445	-0.5pp $418	base $390	+0.5pp $362	+1.0pp $334

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,250
• Closing costs: $3,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $109,000 Active 90 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $109,000 Active 89 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $109,000 Active 88 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $109,000 Active 87 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $109,000 Active 85 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $109,000 Active 84 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $109,000 Active 82 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $109,000 Active 81 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $109,000 Active 80 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $109,000 Active 79 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $109,000 Active 76 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $109,000 Active 75 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $109,000 Active 74 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $109,000 Active 73 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $109,000 Active 72 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $109,000 Active 71 DOM
17. 2026-03-19
    listed $109,000 Active 678-char remark

    Show marketing remark (678 chars)

    4.63 Acres +/- in an excellent location just outside of Prairie Grove. 5 minutes to Prairie Grove & 2 minutes to the intersection in Hogeye. The property is full of natural stone, hardwood, cedar & wildlife. On the property is a 1,008 sqft manufactured home. House can be finished or torn down to build something new. Electric, city water & septic on site. Mostly wooded with the exception of the current house area. Gorgeous views from the top would make a nice place to build. Little to no value placed on the house. It needs work to be livable. 15 minute scenic drive to I-49. 20/25 minutes to the U of A. This home will not go FHA/VA/RD. Come check it out.

18. 2012-05-29
    soldstatus $25,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $521 · $43/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $698 · $58/mo
• Expected delta: +$176/yr (+$15/mo · 33.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,964
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,106
• − Property taxes: −$521
• − Insurance: −$545
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,277
• − Management: −$1,277
• − Depreciation: −$3,171
• Taxable income: $3,067
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$736
• After-tax cash flow: $3,950/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Prairie Grove School District
• NCES district ID: 0511760
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $55,896
• Composite: 35.91/100
• National rank: #4808
• State rank: #50 of 238 in AR

Livability — Prairie Grove

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #99
• US rank: #10475

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Washington County · 252,056 people
• City population: 10,744
• Metro: Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, AR
• Population (ZIP): 10,744
• Household income: $70,985
• Rent vs Own: 27.9% rent · 72.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 94.0

Population outlook (Washington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 271,748 people
• By 2030: 296,414 · +9.1%
• By 2040: 346,874 · +27.6%
• By 2050: 398,552 · +46.7%
• By 2075: 523,309 · +92.6%
• By 2100: 615,280 · +126.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Two or more races 20% Hispanic / Latino 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Portuguese 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Washington

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.7) · D 45.1% · R 51.7% · Other 3.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.4pp toward D · 2008: -13.1pp · 2024: -6.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.7 2020: R+3.9 2016: R+10.4 2012: R+16.3 2008: R+13.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -58.17%
• Current HPI: 326.3868
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, AR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+336.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-19 Listed $109,000 NWARMLS
• 2012-05-29 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $521 · +8.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.