2391 Quarter Horse Trl

Heber-Overgaard, AZ 85933

$139,900D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 10,368 sqft · Built 2006 · Condo · Active · 79 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,549/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax + insurance: −$101
• HOA: −$374
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$325
• Net cashflow: $15/mo
• Annual: $184/yr
• Cap rate: 6.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.47%
• DSCR: 1.02
• 1% rule: 1.11%
• Cash to close: $39,172

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $140k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $15 ($184/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $132k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $967 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Heber-Overgaard Unified District (4392) (rural): math 52% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #51 of 249 in AZ (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 24% of rent.
• Market conditions: 258 active listings in the ZIP; 485 units permitted in Navajo County in 2024 (11 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Navajo County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $8k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $37k; list at $140k implies a 278% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.2% in Heber-Overgaard — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.