2391 Quarter Horse Trl · Heber-Overgaard, AZ 85933

$139,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 10,368 sqft · Condo public records · 77 Days on market

Built 2006 $374/mo HOA · 24% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Short Sale-Lender approval required. Mountain Retreat no yard work just enjoy your time in the fresh mountain air. HOA amenities include club house, fitness center, laundry, meeting place,basketball court. volleyball and tennis. Walk to Bison Ranch shops and restaurants.

Key facts

• Serene courtyard
• Green open space
• Vibrant landscaping

Tags

• GROUND-LEVEL CONDO
• SERENE COURTYARD
• MATURE SHADE TREES
• GREEN OPEN SPACE
• VIBRANT LANDSCAPING
• GRILLING AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in the Bison Ranch subdivision; Unit number 125; No lease land; Trees on property; County-maintained road; Zoning: SD
• HOA & community: HOA dues of $374 per month; Community amenities include clubhouse, exercise facility, and laundry; Mandatory HOA with property-owner association and rental restrictions

Exterior

• Utilities: Metered water by AZ Water Company; Sewer available; Power available; Navopache utility listed
• Home design: Condo/townhome; One story; Private-adjoining property
• Construction: Wood-frame construction; Slab foundation; Flat roof
• Exterior features: Landscaped grounds; Panoramic views; Covered patio; Double-pane windows

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Breakfast bar; Open living/dining room combination
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: Tub/shower
• Heating & cooling: Central A/C; Electric forced-air heating; Electric water heater
• Interior features: Carpet flooring in some areas; Tile flooring in some areas; No fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Laundry available in the community

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $15 ($184/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $132k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.2% in Heber-Overgaard — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Heber-Overgaard Unified District (4392) (rural): math 52% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #51 of 249 in AZ (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 254 active listings in the ZIP; 485 units permitted in Navajo County in 2024 (11 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $967 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Navajo County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $8k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $37k; list at $140k implies a 278% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 24% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,506 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.47%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-21,521
• Equity at exit: $20,860

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-16,783
• Equity at exit: $12,096

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85933

• Home prices YoY: -18.9%
• Active inventory: 254
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,549 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$43 /mo · $513/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$374
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$325
• Net cashflow: $15

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,530

Max offer price $139,900

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $95	-5% $55	+0% $15	+5% $-24	+10% $-64
Rent	-10% $-107	-5% $-46	+0% $15	+5% $77	+10% $138
Rate	-1.0pp $86	-0.5pp $51	base $15	+0.5pp $-21	+1.0pp $-58

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $374 · $4,488/yr
• Likely covers: gym
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $139,900 Active 77 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,900 Active 76 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,900 Active 75 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,900 Active 74 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,900 Active 73 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $139,900 Active 71 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $139,900 Active 70 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,900 Active 67 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $139,900 Active 66 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $139,900 Active 65 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $139,900 Active 64 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $139,900 Active 61 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,900 Active 60 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    price $139,900 Active 59 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $147,900 Active 59 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $147,900 Active 58 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $147,900 Active 57 DOM
18. 2026-04-04
    listed $147,900 Active
19. 2014-07-25
    soldstatus $37,000 274-char remark

    Show marketing remark (274 chars)

    Short Sale-Lender approval required. Mountain Retreat no yard work just enjoy your time in the fresh mountain air. HOA amenities include club house, fitness center, laundry, meeting place,basketball court. volleyball and tennis. Walk to Bison Ranch shops and restaurants.

20. 2014-03-21
    listed $41,900 274-char remark

    Show marketing remark (274 chars)

    Short Sale-Lender approval required. Mountain Retreat no yard work just enjoy your time in the fresh mountain air. HOA amenities include club house, fitness center, laundry, meeting place,basketball court. volleyball and tennis. Walk to Bison Ranch shops and restaurants.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $513 · $43/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $923 · $77/mo
• Expected delta: +$410/yr (+$34/mo · 80.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥87°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,593
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$513
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,487
• − Management: −$1,487
• − HOA: −$4,488
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable loss: −$1,989
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$477
• After-tax cash flow: $661/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Heber-Overgaard Unified District (4392)
• NCES district ID: 0400026
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $37,916
• Composite: 40.42/100
• National rank: #3727
• State rank: #51 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Heber-Overgaard

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,989

Population outlook (Navajo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,760 people
• By 2030: 103,301 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 97,070 · -8.2%
• By 2050: 88,850 · -16.0%
• By 2075: 65,180 · -38.4%
• By 2100: 37,281 · -64.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4% Native American 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 10% Italian 7% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Navajo

• 2024 margin: R (+17.2) · D 40.9% · R 58.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.5pp toward R · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -17.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.2 2020: R+8.2 2016: R+7.9 2012: R+8.4 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.51%
• Current HPI: 358.021
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+253.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-04 Listed $147,900 WMMLS
• 2014-07-25 Sold (MLS) $37,000 ARMLS
• 2014-03-21 Listed $41,900 ARMLS

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $513 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.