3836 Heron Watch Dr

Green, OH 44319

$995,000C+

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,599 sqft · Built 2004 · SingleFamily · Active · 46 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $11,111/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5,218
• Tax + insurance: −$1,412
• HOA: −$270
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,333
• Net cashflow: $1,877/mo
• Annual: $22,529/yr
• Cap rate: 8.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.09%
• DSCR: 1.36
• 1% rule: 1.12%
• Cash to close: $278,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $995k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($23k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($11k rent vs $995k).
• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($965k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $965k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $7k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $30k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 87/100 on livability (#31 in OH, #281 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, employment A+; Watch: commute F.
• Green Local (suburban): math 75% / reading 74% proficiency, ranked #90 of 656 in OH (top 14%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 90 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,114 units permitted in Summit County in 2024 (397 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Summit County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $995k implies a 3880% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 2.6% in Green — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $11,111/mo this rent would consume 178% of the median local household income ($75k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
• What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
• Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.