3836 Heron Watch Dr · Green, OH 44319

$995,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,599 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 46 Days on market

Built 2004 6,372 sqft lot $270/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.6/30.0
• DSCR +7.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Livability +4.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

WHAT AN INCREDIBLE VIEW OF PORTAGE LAKES! It is all about the Lake at this Beautiful 3 bedroom, 4 bathroom 1 owner home with direct water front view and direct access. 3 level views of the lake make this house one you will enjoy year around. Boat dock and boat lift included. Perfect time to buy and enjoy the lake . Welcome your guests either through the front entry onto the hardwood floors and into the main living room with immediate sight lines and access to the lake. 20+ ceilings will wall to wall windows and a gas fireplace are the perfect spot for all seasons. Living room, dining room, a beautiful fully applianced kitchen, a dedicated office and 1/2 bathroom finish off this 1st floor. J

Key facts

• Boat lift
• Boat dock
• Gas fireplace

Tags

• DIRECT WATER FRONT VIEW
• BOAT DOCK
• BOAT LIFT
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• GAS FIREPLACE
• LARGE COMPOSITE DECK

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with monthly fee of $270; HOA covers common area maintenance and snow removal

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2 garage spaces
• Security: Security system
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Updated/remodeled condition; Has view
• Construction: Brick and vinyl siding exterior; Asphalt roof; Built from public records
• Exterior features: Lakefront / waterfront with lake privileges; Boat slip; Dock; Sprinkler/irrigation system; Rear porch; Deck; Enclosed porch; Patio; Porch; RV/boat storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in oven; Range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 8
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 2 half bathrooms; 1 main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating; Gas heating; Fireplace(s) heat source
• Interior features: Wet bar; Granite counters; High ceilings; Bar; Walk-in closet(s); Wired for sound; Finished walk-out basement; Sump pump

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $995k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($23k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($11k rent vs $995k).
• Recommended offer: $965k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 2.7% in Green — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 87/100 on livability (#31 in OH, #281 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, employment A+; Watch: commute F.
• Green Local (suburban): math 75% / reading 74% proficiency, ranked #90 of 656 in OH (top 14%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 90 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,114 units permitted in Summit County in 2024 (397 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $11,111/mo this rent would consume 178% of the median local household income ($75k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $7k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $30k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Summit County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($965k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $995k implies a 3880% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $965,150 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
6. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
7. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.09%
• DSCR: 1.36
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $649,750
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3350 S Main St	0.72mi	3/2.5	2,904 (+12%)	8mo	$725,000	$250	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-41,475
• Equity at exit: $148,358

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.43×
• Total profit: $118,597
• Equity at exit: $86,029

Cash invested: $278,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 44319

• Active inventory: 90
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $11,111 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5,218
• Tax from tax record: −$998 /mo · $11,973/yr
• Insurance: −$415
• HOA: −$270
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,333
• Net cashflow: $1,877

Break-even live

Break-even rent $8,734

Max offer price $995,000

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $2,441	-5% $2,159	+0% $1,877	+5% $1,596	+10% $1,314
Rent	-10% $1,000	-5% $1,439	+0% $1,877	+5% $2,316	+10% $2,755
Rate	-1.0pp $2,379	-0.5pp $2,131	base $1,877	+0.5pp $1,620	+1.0pp $1,357

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $248,750
• Closing costs: $29,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3581 Mong Ave Unit 1496037P Akron, OH	4.0	2.0	2142	$11,111	$5.19	44d	1	1.15mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $270 · $3,240/yr
• Likely covers: watergas

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $995,000 Active 46 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $995,000 Active 44 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $995,000 Active 43 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $995,000 Active 42 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $995,000 Active 41 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $995,000 Active 39 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $995,000 Active 38 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $995,000 Active 35 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $995,000 Active 34 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    remarks 699-char remark
11. 2026-06-08
    listed $995,000 Active 33 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $11,973 · $998/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $13,748 · $1,146/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,774/yr (+$148/mo · 14.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $133,332
• − Mortgage interest: −$55,735
• − Property taxes: −$11,973
• − Insurance: −$4,975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$10,667
• − Management: −$10,667
• − HOA: −$3,240
• − Depreciation: −$28,945
• Taxable income: $7,130
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,711
• After-tax cash flow: $20,818/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Green Local
• NCES district ID: 3905001
• Math proficiency: 75% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 74% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $63,973
• Composite: 64.45/100
• National rank: #542
• State rank: #90 of 656 in OH

Livability — Green

• Score: 87/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #281

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Green, OH
• County: Summit · 539,389 people
• City population: 50,124
• Metro: Akron, OH
• Population (ZIP): 21,469
• Household income: $74,781
• Rent vs Own: 25.6% rent · 74.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 12.4

Population outlook (Summit County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 546,583 people
• By 2030: 544,028 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 531,363 · -2.8%
• By 2050: 514,923 · -5.8%
• By 2075: 481,765 · -11.9%
• By 2100: 432,265 · -20.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 4% Black 2% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Other Indo-European 1% Spanish 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Summit

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+7.0) · D 53.0% · R 46.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.6pp toward R · 2008: 16.6pp · 2024: 7.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+7.0 2020: D+9.6 2016: D+8.2 2012: D+14.8 2008: D+16.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -236.58%
• Current HPI: 213.2267
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+3880.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Listed $995,000 MLSNOW
• 2004-07-30 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $11,973 · +0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.