2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,093 sqft ·
Built 2025
· Townhouse
· Active
· 118 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,927/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$996
Tax + insurance
−$383
HOA
−$462
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$405
Net cashflow
$-318/mo
Annual
$-3,821/yr
Cap rate
4.70%
Cash-on-cash
-5.69%
DSCR
0.75
1% rule
1.01%
Cash to close
$53,172
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $190k. Condition is rated good.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-318 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $144k (24.3% below list).
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
It's been on market 118 days — a 9% lower offer ($173k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $144k (24.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 81/100 on livability (#101 in FL, #1,528 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime D, amenities F.
Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Ida M. Stewart Elementary School (math 77% / reading 72%, grade A, #230 of 2,144 statewide, top 12%, 391 students, 34% FRL); Braden River Middle School (math 54% / reading 47%, grade C, #246 of 571 statewide, top 44%, 810 students, 58% FRL); Braden River High School (math 44% / reading 52%, grade D, #201 of 667 statewide, top 30%, 1,774 students, 45% FRL).
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; HOA is 24% of rent.
Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.4%/yr); 492 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 108d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.5% in Bradenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 118 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
CashFlowRE · CFR-A79Q6ADDA6Y59F
· Data 5 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29