2722 Paddington Station Ln

Vinton, VA 24179

$324,950D

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,616 sqft · Built 2013 · SingleFamily · Active · 58 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,550/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax + insurance: −$360
• HOA: −$60
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$536
• Net cashflow: $-109/mo
• Annual: $-1,313/yr
• Cap rate: 5.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.44%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $90,986

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $325k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-109 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $306k (5.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $255k (21.5% below list).
• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($315k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $255k (21.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#61 in VA, #1,742 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Roanoke County Public School District (suburban): math 71% / reading 78% proficiency, ranked #9 of 131 in VA (top 7%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Herman L. Horn Elementary (math 57% / reading 72%, grade B, #416 of 1,108 statewide, top 41%, 407 students, 72% FRL); William Byrd Middle (math 68% / reading 74%, grade A, #77 of 342 statewide, top 23%, 827 students, 42% FRL); William Byrd High (math 77% / reading 89%, grade A, #33 of 319 statewide, top 11%, 1,142 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 51% FRL vs 22% district-wide (29 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 158 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 360 units permitted in Roanoke County in 2024 (228 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Roanoke County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 4 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $75k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $207k; list at $325k implies a 57% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.8% in Vinton — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.