2722 Paddington Station Ln · Vinton, VA 24179

$324,950

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,616 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 58 Days on market

Built 2013 6,534 sqft lot $201/sqft · at area comps Est $333k · at est. $60/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 49% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.5/30.0
• ARV discount +8.6/15.0
• Schools +6.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come see this wonderful property in sought after neighborhood in Vinton Walking/bike trail steps away from your home! This home is perfectly situated in a cul-de-sac in Victoria Meadows. It is also very close to William Byrd High School and all the amenities that the town of Vinton has to offer.

Key facts

• Walking bike trail
• Cul-de-sac
• Close to amenities

Tags

• SOUGHT AFTER NEIGHBORHOOD
• WALKING BIKE TRAIL
• CUL-DE-SAC
• CLOSE TO AMENITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $325k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-109 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $306k (5.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $255k (21.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $255k (21.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.8% in Vinton — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#61 in VA, #1,742 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Roanoke County Public School District (suburban): math 71% / reading 78% proficiency, ranked #9 of 131 in VA (top 7%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Herman L. Horn Elementary (math 57% / reading 72%, grade B, #416 of 1,108 statewide, top 41%, 407 students, 72% FRL); William Byrd Middle (math 68% / reading 74%, grade A, #77 of 342 statewide, top 23%, 827 students, 42% FRL); William Byrd High (math 77% / reading 89%, grade A, #33 of 319 statewide, top 11%, 1,142 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 51% FRL vs 22% district-wide (29 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 158 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 360 units permitted in Roanoke County in 2024 (228 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Roanoke County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($315k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $75k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $207k; list at $325k implies a 57% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $255,000 (21.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.44%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $333,277
• List price: $324,950
• Delta: -2.50%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2606 Paddington Station Ln	0.12mi	3/2.5	1,742 (+8%)	6mo	$322,000	$185	76
2704 Staton Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,490 (-8%)	9mo	$365,000	$245	70
LOT 2 Staton Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,518 (-6%)	12mo	$359,950	$237	69
427 Cambridge Court Rd	0.30mi	3/2.5	1,811 (+12%)	1mo	$355,000	$196	65
LOT 3 Staton Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,405 (-13%)	22mo	$330,685	$235	50
2988 Stonebridge Cir	0.49mi	3/2.5	1,848 (+14%)	6mo	$283,500	$153	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-59,661
• Equity at exit: $48,451

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-61,074
• Equity at exit: $28,096

Cash invested: $90,986 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24179

• Active inventory: 158
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,550 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax from tax record: −$224 /mo · $2,693/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$60
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$536
• Net cashflow: $-109

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,689

Max offer price $305,620

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $75	-5% $-17	+0% $-109	+5% $-201	+10% $-293
Rent	-10% $-311	-5% $-210	+0% $-109	+5% $-9	+10% $92
Rate	-1.0pp $54	-0.5pp $-27	base $-109	+0.5pp $-194	+1.0pp $-279

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,238
• Closing costs: $9,748
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2641 Parkview Dr Vinton, VA	4.0	2.0	2200	$2,550	$1.16	15d	1	0.98mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $60 · $720/yr

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-22
   remarks 490-char remark
2. 2026-06-22
   days on market $324,950 Active 58 DOM
3. 2026-06-19
   pricedays on market $324,950 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $334,950 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-05
   days on market $334,950 Active 50 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $334,950 Active 48 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $334,950 Active 47 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $334,950 Active 46 DOM
9. 2026-05-30
   pricedays on market $334,950 Active 45 DOM
10. 2026-05-19
    price $344,950 296-char remark

    Show marketing remark (296 chars)

    Come see this wonderful property in sought after neighborhood in Vinton Walking/bike trail steps away from your home! This home is perfectly situated in a cul-de-sac in Victoria Meadows. It is also very close to William Byrd High School and all the amenities that the town of Vinton has to offer.

11. 2026-05-10
    price $354,950 296-char remark

    Show marketing remark (296 chars)

    Come see this wonderful property in sought after neighborhood in Vinton Walking/bike trail steps away from your home! This home is perfectly situated in a cul-de-sac in Victoria Meadows. It is also very close to William Byrd High School and all the amenities that the town of Vinton has to offer.

12. 2026-04-26
    price $369,950 296-char remark

    Show marketing remark (296 chars)

    Come see this wonderful property in sought after neighborhood in Vinton Walking/bike trail steps away from your home! This home is perfectly situated in a cul-de-sac in Victoria Meadows. It is also very close to William Byrd High School and all the amenities that the town of Vinton has to offer.

13. 2026-04-15
    listed $399,950 Active 296-char remark

    Show marketing remark (296 chars)

    Come see this wonderful property in sought after neighborhood in Vinton Walking/bike trail steps away from your home! This home is perfectly situated in a cul-de-sac in Victoria Meadows. It is also very close to William Byrd High School and all the amenities that the town of Vinton has to offer.

14. 2019-06-03
    soldstatus $207,000
15. 2019-05-31
    soldstatus $207,000 239-char remark

    Show marketing remark (239 chars)

    Come enjoy the mountain views from the deck or peaceful nights on patio; split bedroom design in this spacious floor plan- seller added family room, powder room, and large laundry room- all appliances pass with the house- ready to move in!

16. 2019-03-01
    listed $214,950 239-char remark

    Show marketing remark (239 chars)

    Come enjoy the mountain views from the deck or peaceful nights on patio; split bedroom design in this spacious floor plan- seller added family room, powder room, and large laundry room- all appliances pass with the house- ready to move in!

17. 2014-03-07
    soldstatus $156,000
18. 2014-03-07
    soldstatus $32,000
19. 2014-01-30
    listed $164,950
20. 2014-01-29
    historical
21. 2013-11-22
    listed $164,950
22. 2010-02-19
    soldstatus $676,800

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,693 · $224/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,693 · $224/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,202
• − Property taxes: −$2,693
• − Insurance: −$1,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,448
• − Management: −$2,448
• − HOA: −$720
• − Depreciation: −$9,453
• Taxable loss: −$6,990
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,677
• After-tax cash flow: $364/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Roanoke County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103330
• Math proficiency: 71% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 78% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $60,526
• Composite: 64.08/100
• National rank: #578
• State rank: #9 of 131 in VA

Livability — Vinton

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #61
• US rank: #1742

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 18,834

Population outlook (Roanoke County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 98,162 people
• By 2030: 99,793 · +1.7%
• By 2040: 101,965 · +3.9%
• By 2050: 103,328 · +5.3%
• By 2075: 108,641 · +10.7%
• By 2100: 104,845 · +6.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 4% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Roanoke

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.5) · D 38.2% · R 60.7% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.4pp toward R · 2008: -21.1pp · 2024: -22.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.5 2020: R+21.8 2016: R+28.1 2012: R+25.6 2008: R+21.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -117.89%
• Current HPI: 186.9964
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-49.0% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $344,950 MLSRV
• 2026-05-10 Price Changed $354,950 MLSRV
• 2026-04-26 Price Changed $369,950 MLSRV
• 2026-04-15 Listed $399,950 MLSRV
• 2019-06-03 Sold (Public Records) $207,000 Public Records
• 2019-05-31 Sold (MLS) $207,000 MLSRV
• 2019-03-01 Listed $214,950 MLSRV
• 2014-03-07 Sold (Public Records) $32,000 Public Records
• 2014-03-07 Sold (MLS) $156,000 MLSRV
• 2014-01-30 Listed $164,950 MLSRV
• 2014-01-29 Listing Removed — MLSRV
• 2013-11-22 Listed $164,950 MLSRV
• 2010-02-19 Sold (Public Records) $676,800 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,693 · +8.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.