31583 Pacific Coast Hwy

Malibu, CA 90265

$8,495,000F

6 bd · 7.5 ba · 11,500 sqft · Built 2026 · Land · Active · 395 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $13,843/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$44,549
• Tax + insurance: −$4,961
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,907
• Net cashflow: $-38,573/mo
• Annual: $-462,880/yr
• Cap rate: 0.84%
• Cash-on-cash: -19.46%
• DSCR: 0.13
• 1% rule: 0.16%
• Cash to close: $2,378,600

Investor read

• This is a 6-bed/7.5-bath land listed at $8.49M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-39k ($-463k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $1.68M (80.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.38M (83.7% below list).
• It's been on market 395 days — a 12% lower offer ($7.48M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.38M (83.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $111k of equity ($59k loan paydown + $52k appreciation (0.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#979 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, schools B; Watch: housing C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Santa Monica-Malibu Unified (urban): math 61% / reading 74% proficiency, ranked #123 of 1,400 in CA (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.4%/yr); 636 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 19,697 units permitted in Los Angeles County in 2024 (9,426 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Los Angeles County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Current owner paid $1.30M; list at $8.49M implies a 553% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$542k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• At $13,843/mo this rent would consume 84% of the median local household income ($197k/yr) (locally 420% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 395 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 84% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.