31583 Pacific Coast Hwy · Malibu, CA 90265

$8,495,000

6 bd · 7.5 ba · 11,500 sqft · Land · 395 Days on market

Built 2026 4.49 ac lot $739/sqft · 73% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• Appreciation +5.3/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.7/5.0
• Cash flow +0.1/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Unbeatable opportunity to own a brand-new modern home in Broad Beach, complete with deeded beach access. Don't miss your chance to join one of Malibu's most desirable communities, Broad Beach. The project has been approved by planning and is currently in plan check with the City of Malibu Building Department. Have your chance to customize this magnificent property without the hassle of dealing with Malibu City Planning. This stunning estate offers a beautifully designed six-bedroom, nine-bathroom estate. The open-concept layout flows effortlessly, connecting the chef's kitchen, spacious dining area, theater, bar, and dramatic ocean views with a magnificent rooftop deck. This project is currently in plan check and can be delivered as RTI. Basement level with a ground floor design for hosting and a second floor with bedrooms and expansive outdoor deck with jacuzzi. The project has been featured in Architectural Digest. Customize your dream home in Malibu today without the wait. Will be delivered with water and power brought to the site.

Key facts

• Deeded beach access
• Theater
• Rooftop deck

Tags

• DEEDED BEACH ACCESS
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• CHEF'S KITCHEN
• SPACIOUS DINING AREA
• THEATER
• ROOFTOP DECK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/7.5-bath land listed at $8.49M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-39k ($-463k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $1.68M (80.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.38M (83.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $1.38M (83.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#979 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, schools B; Watch: housing C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Santa Monica-Malibu Unified (urban): math 61% / reading 74% proficiency, ranked #123 of 1,400 in CA (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.4%/yr); 636 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 19,697 units permitted in Los Angeles County in 2024 (9,426 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $13,843/mo this rent would consume 84% of the median local household income ($197k/yr) (locally 420% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $111k of equity ($59k loan paydown + $52k appreciation (0.6% local appreciation)).
• Los Angeles County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$542k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 395 days — a 12% lower offer ($7.48M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $1.30M; list at $8.49M implies a 553% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $1,384,302 (83.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 395 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 84% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.16% ✗
• Cap rate: 0.84%
• Cash-on-cash: -19.46%
• DSCR: 0.13
• GRM: 51.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $32,017,780
• List price: $8,495,000
• Delta: -73.47%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

0.62% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.05×
• Total profit: $-2,501,497
• Equity at exit: $2,732,403

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.73×
• Total profit: $-4,116,298
• Equity at exit: $3,504,819

Cash invested: $2,378,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 90265

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Rents YoY: -3.4%
• Active inventory: 636
• Price-to-rent: 51.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $13,843 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$44,549
• Tax from tax record: −$1,421 /mo · $17,052/yr
• Insurance: −$3,540
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,907
• Net cashflow: $-38,573

Break-even live

Break-even rent $62,670

Max offer price $1,680,860

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-33,764	-5% $-36,169	+0% $-38,573	+5% $-50,706	+10% $-53,642
Rent	-10% $-39,667	-5% $-39,120	+0% $-38,573	+5% $-38,027	+10% $-37,480
Rate	-1.0pp $-34,295	-0.5pp $-36,413	base $-38,573	+0.5pp $-40,775	+1.0pp $-43,014

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $2,123,750
• Closing costs: $254,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4310 Encinal Canyon Rd Malibu, CA	6.0	5.5	9120	$75,000	$8.22	26d	1	1.12mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $8,495,000 Active 395 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $8,495,000 Active 392 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $8,495,000 Active 391 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $8,495,000 Active 390 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $8,495,000 Active 389 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $8,495,000 Active 387 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $8,495,000 Active 386 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $8,495,000 Active 383 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $8,495,000 Active 382 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $8,495,000 Active 381 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $8,495,000 Active 378 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $8,495,000 Active 377 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $8,495,000 Active 376 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $8,495,000 Active 375 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $8,495,000 Active 374 DOM
16. 2025-05-23
    price $8,495,000 1050-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1050 chars)

    Unbeatable opportunity to own a brand-new modern home in Broad Beach, complete with deeded beach access. Don't miss your chance to join one of Malibu's most desirable communities, Broad Beach. The project has been approved by planning and is currently in plan check with the City of Malibu Building Department. Have your chance to customize this magnificent property without the hassle of dealing with Malibu City Planning. This stunning estate offers a beautifully designed six-bedroom, nine-bathroom estate. The open-concept layout flows effortlessly, connecting the chef's kitchen, spacious dining area, theater, bar, and dramatic ocean views with a magnificent rooftop deck. This project is currently in plan check and can be delivered as RTI. Basement level with a ground floor design for hosting and a second floor with bedrooms and expansive outdoor deck with jacuzzi. The project has been featured in Architectural Digest. Customize your dream home in Malibu today without the wait. Will be delivered with water and power brought to the site.

17. 2025-05-22
    listed $84,950,000 Active 1050-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1050 chars)

    Unbeatable opportunity to own a brand-new modern home in Broad Beach, complete with deeded beach access. Don't miss your chance to join one of Malibu's most desirable communities, Broad Beach. The project has been approved by planning and is currently in plan check with the City of Malibu Building Department. Have your chance to customize this magnificent property without the hassle of dealing with Malibu City Planning. This stunning estate offers a beautifully designed six-bedroom, nine-bathroom estate. The open-concept layout flows effortlessly, connecting the chef's kitchen, spacious dining area, theater, bar, and dramatic ocean views with a magnificent rooftop deck. This project is currently in plan check and can be delivered as RTI. Basement level with a ground floor design for hosting and a second floor with bedrooms and expansive outdoor deck with jacuzzi. The project has been featured in Architectural Digest. Customize your dream home in Malibu today without the wait. Will be delivered with water and power brought to the site.

18. 2024-05-14
    soldstatus $1,300,000
19. 1979-12-27
    soldstatus $200,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $17,052 · $1,421/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $64,562 · $5,380/mo
• Expected delta: +$47,510/yr (+$3,959/mo · 278.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥85°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $166,116
• − Mortgage interest: −$475,852
• − Property taxes: −$17,052
• − Insurance: −$42,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$13,289
• − Management: −$13,289
• − Depreciation: −$247,127
• Taxable loss: −$642,969
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$154,313
• After-tax cash flow: $-308,567/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Monica-Malibu Unified
• NCES district ID: 0635700
• Math proficiency: 61% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 74% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $81,489
• Composite: 61.58/100
• National rank: #1535
• State rank: #123 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Malibu

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #979
• US rank: #24630

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing C- Health & safety C+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Malibu, CA
• County: Los Angeles County · 9,444,647 people
• City population: 15,918
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• Population (ZIP): 15,918
• Household income: $196,742
• Rent vs Own: 21.5% rent · 78.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 420.0

Population outlook (Los Angeles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,940,515 people
• By 2030: 11,256,481 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 11,729,929 · +7.2%
• By 2050: 11,948,407 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 11,818,114 · +8.0%
• By 2100: 10,842,928 · -0.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 5% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Italian 8% Scotch-Irish 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Los Angeles

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+32.9) · D 64.8% · R 31.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.4pp toward R · 2008: 40.4pp · 2024: 32.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+32.9 2020: D+44.2 2016: D+48.0 2012: D+40.0 2008: D+40.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.62%
• Current HPI: 498.5117
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.39%
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+4147.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-05-23 Price Changed $8,495,000 CRMLS
• 2025-05-22 Listed $84,950,000 CRMLS
• 2024-05-14 Sold (Public Records) $1,300,000 Public Records
• 1979-12-27 Sold (Public Records) $200,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $17,052 · +186.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.