5640 Savanna Valley Trl

St. Cloud, FL 34772

$469,990F

5 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,666 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Active · 197 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,834/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,465
• Tax + insurance: −$783
• HOA: −$95
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$595
• Net cashflow: $-1,104/mo
• Annual: $-13,251/yr
• Cap rate: 3.47%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.07%
• DSCR: 0.55
• 1% rule: 0.60%
• Cash to close: $131,597

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $470k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $310k (34.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $283k (39.7% below list).
• It's been on market 197 days — a 12% lower offer ($414k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $283k (39.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Osceola (suburban): math 39% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #60 of 73 in FL (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Neptune Elementary School (math 42% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,366 of 2,144 statewide, top 64%, 993 students, 46% FRL); Neptune Middle School (math 49% / reading 48%, grade C-, #274 of 571 statewide, top 50%, 978 students, 44% FRL); St. Cloud High School (math 32% / reading 50%, grade F, #289 of 667 statewide, top 44%, 2,264 students, 51% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 1459 active listings in the ZIP; 37 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 88d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 70% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 8,813 units permitted in Osceola County in 2024 (3,072 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Osceola County population projected at +73% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($98k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 197 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 40% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.