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5640 Savanna Valley Trl
F Composite 31.97
Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

  • ARV discount +10.9/15.0
  • Cash flow +5.0/30.0
  • Condition / age +5.0/5.0
  • Schools +4.4/10.0
  • Rent growth +3.1/5.0
  • Livability +2.5/5.0
  • 1% rule +1.0/10.0
  • DSCR +0.0/10.0
  • Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$469,990

5640 Savanna Valley Trl · St. Cloud, FL 34772
5 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,666 sqft · SingleFamily · 151 Days on market
Built 2026 Excellent condition 4,217 sqft lot 2-car garage $176/sqft · 8% below area Est $509k · 8% under $95/mo HOA · 3% of rent
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

5640 Savanna Valley Trail, St.

Key facts

  • 4,217 sq ft lot
  • 2 garage spots
  • Community pool

Neighborhood map

Property Rental comp Retail Costco Walmart Transit Schools Stadiums Fortune 500 · Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

  • This is a 5-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $470k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

  • At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
  • To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $310k (34.1% below list).
  • To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $283k (39.8% below list).
  • Recommended offer: $283k (39.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

  • Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
  • Osceola (suburban): math 39% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #60 of 73 in FL (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
  • Zoned schools: Neptune Elementary School (math 42% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,366 of 2,144 statewide, top 64%, 993 students, 46% FRL); Neptune Middle School (math 49% / reading 48%, grade C-, #274 of 571 statewide, top 50%, 978 students, 44% FRL); St. Cloud High School (math 32% / reading 50%, grade F, #289 of 667 statewide, top 44%, 2,264 students, 51% FRL).
  • Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 1281 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 87d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 74% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 8,813 units permitted in Osceola County in 2024 (3,072 in 5+ unit buildings).
  • This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($98k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

  • Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
  • Osceola County population projected at +73% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

  • It's been on market 151 days — a 12% lower offer ($414k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
  • 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Recommended offer $283,096 (39.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

  1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
  2. It's been on market 151 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 40% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
  3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
  4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
  5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
  6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
  7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
  8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
  9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule
0.60% ✗
Cap rate
3.47%
Cash-on-cash
-10.09%
DSCR
0.55
GRM
13.8

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp)
$509,006
List price
$469,990
Delta
-7.67%
Verdict
FAIR
Comps
20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
Address Dist Beds/Ba Sqft Sold Price $/sf Match
4679 Homestead Trl 1.04mi 4/3.0 (-1) 2,631 (-1%) 6mo $484,000 $184 49
5105 Rain Shadow Dr 0.73mi 5/4.0 2,900 (+9%) 4mo $510,000 $176 48
4879 Shady Pines Dr 1.10mi 5/3.0 2,883 (+8%) 1mo $549,990 $191 46
5229 Prairie Preserve Run 0.83mi 4/3.0 (-1) 2,530 (-5%) 5mo $560,000 $221 44
5166 Prairie Preserve Run 0.73mi 4/3.0 (-1) 2,489 (-7%) 6mo $500,000 $201 41
5087 Rain Shadow Dr 0.75mi 4/3.0 (-1) 2,489 (-7%) 5mo $490,000 $197 41
5184 Prairie Preserve Run 0.75mi 5/4.0 3,120 (+17%) 4mo $575,000 $184 37
3011 Diamond Ln 1.09mi 4/3.0 (-1) 2,336 (-12%) 4mo $515,000 $220 32
4836 Shady Pines Dr 1.12mi 4/3.0 (-1) 2,173 (-18%) 0mo $477,000 $220 31
5190 Prairie Preserve Run 0.76mi 4/3.0 (-1) 2,194 (-18%) 5mo $460,000 $210 27
4878 Shady Pines Dr 1.08mi 4/3.0 (-1) 2,174 (-18%) 6mo $465,000 $214 26
4871 Shady Pines Dr 1.11mi 4/3.0 (-1) 2,174 (-18%) 6mo $510,000 $235 26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold
IRR
-35.2%
Equity multiple
-0.13×
Total profit
$-148,514
Equity at exit
$70,077
10-year hold
IRR
-51.6%
Equity multiple
-0.73×
Total profit
$-227,673
Equity at exit
$40,636

Cash invested: $131,597 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE)
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Florida
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
County
— inherits STATE
City
— inherits STATE
3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.
Methodology + full state rankings →
Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now
50 active · 3 under contract
Months of supply
33.3 mo (3%/mo absorbed)
Median asking
$494,490 ($186/sqft)
Median days on market
38 d
This list price
38% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking
+2.5% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34772

Home prices YoY
-32.5%
Rents YoY
2.3%
Active inventory
1281
Price-to-rent
13.8×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent
$2,831 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I)
−$2,465
Tax est. 1.5%
−$587 /mo · $7,050/yr
Insurance
−$196
HOA
−$95
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
−$595
Net cashflow
$-1,107

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,232
Max offer price $309,872
Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price -10% $-782 -5% $-944 +0% $-1,107 +5% $-1,269 +10% $-1,431
Rent -10% $-1,330 -5% $-1,218 +0% $-1,107 +5% $-995 +10% $-883
Rate -1.0pp $-870 -0.5pp $-987 base $-1,107 +0.5pp $-1,228 +1.0pp $-1,352

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment
$117,498
Closing costs
$14,100
Reserves months
—
Total cash needed
—

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
—
Monthly P&I
—
Monthly cashflow
—
DSCR
—
Eligible?
—

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
—
Monthly P&I
—
Monthly cashflow
—
DSCR
—
Eligible?
—

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested
—
Monthly P&I
—
Monthly cashflow
—
DSCR
—
Eligible?
—

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 27 comps

AddressBedsBaths SqftRent$/sqft DOM Units Dist
5094 Rain Shadow Dr Saint Cloud, FL 4.0 3.0 1762 $2,400 $1.36 113d 1 0.73mi
5082 Rain Shadow Dr Saint Cloud, FL 4.0 3.0 1769 $2,390 $1.35 119d 1 0.75mi
5082 Rain Shadow Dr Unit 1 St Cloud, FL 4.0 3.0 3049 $2,450 $0.80 119d 1 0.75mi
5060 Rain Shadow Dr Saint Cloud, FL 4.0 3.0 1769 $2,350 $1.33 28d 1 0.77mi
5197 Prairie Preserve Run Saint Cloud, FL 4.0 3.0 3556 $3,300 $0.93 87d 1 0.78mi
5037 Prairie Preserve Run Saint Cloud, FL 4.0 3.0 1762 $2,375 $1.35 119d 1 0.81mi
5232 Prairie Preserve Run Saint Cloud, FL 4.0 3.0 2489 $3,000 $1.21 7d 1 0.81mi
5020 Prairie Preserve Run Saint Cloud, FL 4.0 3.0 1769 $2,450 $1.38 119d 1 0.82mi
3332 Whistling Trl Saint Cloud, FL 4.0 3.0 2885 $3,000 $1.04 111d 1 0.83mi
5268 Prairie Preserve Run Saint Cloud, FL 4.0 3.0 2190 $2,800 $1.28 119d 1 0.86mi
4749 Cross Prairie Pkwy Saint Cloud, FL 4.0 2.5 2011 $2,350 $1.17 5d 1 0.97mi
6013 Brick Rd Saint Cloud, FL 4.0 3.0 2573 $2,400 $0.93 70d 1 0.98mi
6013 Brick Rd Saint Cloud, FL 4.0 3.0 2573 $2,400 $0.93 67d 1 0.98mi
4724 Homestead Trl Saint Cloud, FL 4.0 2.5 2114 $2,500 $1.18 67d 1 1.00mi
4704 Homestead Trl Saint Cloud, FL 4.0 2.5 2011 $2,600 $1.29 106d 1 1.01mi
3056 Sand Stone Cir Saint Cloud, FL 4.0 3.0 3000 $2,300 $0.77 6d 1 1.03mi
4669 Sidesaddle Trl Saint Cloud, FL 4.0 2.5 2339 $2,600 $1.11 7d 1 1.05mi
4658 Homestead Trl Saint Cloud, FL 4.0 2.5 2114 $2,500 $1.18 113d 1 1.07mi
4632 Homestead Trl Saint Cloud, FL 4.0 2.5 2104 $2,500 $1.19 119d 1 1.11mi
4598 Sidesaddle Trl Saint Cloud, FL 4.0 2.5 2339 $2,800 $1.20 119d 1 1.16mi
3116 Keystone Pointe Ct Saint Cloud, FL 4.0 2.0 2035 $2,400 $1.18 7d 1 1.19mi
4519 Windy Oak Way Saint Cloud, FL 5.0 3.5 2825 $2,950 $1.04 119d 1 1.31mi
4512 Homestead Trl Saint Cloud, FL 4.0 2.5 2114 $2,350 $1.11 42d 1 1.32mi
4901 Culdesac Ct Saint Cloud, FL 4.0 2.0 1955 $2,500 $1.28 86d 1 1.42mi
2959 Elbib Dr Saint Cloud, FL 4.0 2.0 1854 $2,330 $1.26 71d 1 1.43mi
3015 Elbib Dr Saint Cloud, FL 4.0 2.0 1874 $2,150 $1.15 28d 1 1.43mi
3015 Elbib Dr Unit 1 St Cloud, FL 4.0 2.0 1874 $2,200 $1.17 58d 1 1.43mi

Property features AI

Finance

Other
Lease restrictions applyUnfurnished
Financial info
Other annual assessment reported
HOA & community
Has HOA (Access Management) — $95 monthly; fee includes electricity, maintenance, and poolCommunity amenities: park, playground, pool, dog park, community mailbox, sidewalks, street lights, deed restrictions, reclaimed irrigation

Exterior

Parking
Attached 2-car garage (20 x 18) with garage door openerDrivewayAlley accessGarage faces rear
Security
Smoke detectors
Utilities
Public waterPublic sewerElectricity available and connectedCable availablePhone availableUnderground utilitiesSprinkler meter
Home design
Single family residenceTwo levelsUnder construction (projected completion August 10, 2026)Faces southeastResidential zoningTrees and landscaped yardCity limits lot, landscaped and paved
Construction
Built with block, cement siding, concrete and frameShingle roofSlab foundationNew construction by David Weekley Homes (builder model: The Nagel)
Exterior features
Covered porchSidewalkSprinkler (metered)Sprinkler (recycled)

Interior

Kitchen
DishwasherDisposalMicrowaveRangeRefrigeratorElectric water heater
Bedrooms
5 bedrooms
Flooring
CarpetCeramic tileLaminate
Bathrooms
4 full bathrooms
Heating & cooling
Central heating (electric)Central air conditioning
Interior features
Eat-in kitchenHigh ceilingsKitchen/family room comboLiving room/dining room comboOpen floorplanSolid surface countersSolid wood cabinetsSplit bedroom planStone countersThermostatWalk-in closetsWindow treatmentsBlinds
Laundry & utility
Laundry room with washer and electric dryer hookups

Listing history 50 events

  1. 2026-09-23
    days on market $469,990 Active 151 DOM
  2. 2026-09-22
    days on market $469,990 Active 150 DOM
  3. 2026-09-21
    days on market $469,990 Active 149 DOM
  4. 2026-09-20
    days on market $469,990 Active 148 DOM
  5. 2026-09-19
    days on market $469,990 Active 147 DOM
  6. 2026-09-18
    days on market $469,990 Active 146 DOM
  7. 2026-09-17
    days on market $469,990 Active 145 DOM
  8. 2026-09-16
    days on market $469,990 Active 144 DOM
  9. 2026-09-15
    days on market $469,990 Active 143 DOM
  10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $469,990 Active 142 DOM
  11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $469,990 Active 141 DOM
  12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $469,990 Active 140 DOM
  13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $469,990 Active 139 DOM
  14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $469,990 Active 133 DOM
  15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $469,990 Active 132 DOM
  16. 2026-09-03
    days on market $469,990 Active 131 DOM
  17. 2026-08-31
    days on market $469,990 Active 128 DOM
  18. 2026-08-30
    days on market $469,990 Active 127 DOM
  19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $469,990 Active 126 DOM
  20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $469,990 Active 125 DOM
  21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $469,990 Active 124 DOM
  22. 2026-08-26
    days on market $469,990 Active 123 DOM
  23. 2026-08-25
    days on market $469,990 Active 122 DOM
  24. 2026-08-24
    days on market $469,990 Active 121 DOM
  25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $469,990 Active 119 DOM
  26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $469,990 Active 118 DOM
  27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $469,990 Active 117 DOM
  28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $469,990 Active 116 DOM
  29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $469,990 Active 115 DOM
  30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $469,990 Active 114 DOM
  31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $469,990 Active 113 DOM
  32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $469,990 Active 112 DOM
  33. 2026-08-14
    days on market $469,990 Active 111 DOM
  34. 2026-08-13
    days on market $469,990 Active 110 DOM
  35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $469,990 Active 109 DOM
  36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $469,990 Active 108 DOM
  37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $469,990 Active 107 DOM
  38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $469,990 Active 106 DOM
  39. 2026-08-08
    days on market $469,990 Active 105 DOM
  40. 2026-08-06
    days on market $469,990 Active 103 DOM
  41. 2026-08-05
    days on market $469,990 Active 102 DOM
  42. 2026-08-04
    pricedays on market $469,990 Active 101 DOM
  43. 2026-08-03
    days on market $481,099 Active 100 DOM
  44. 2026-07-31
    days on market $481,099 Active 97 DOM
  45. 2026-07-30
    days on market $481,099 Active 96 DOM
  46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $481,099 Active 95 DOM
  47. 2026-07-28
    days on market $481,099 Active 94 DOM
  48. 2026-07-26
    days on market $481,099 Active 92 DOM
  49. 2026-07-24
    days on market $481,099 Active 90 DOM
  50. 2026-07-23
    days on market $481,099 Active 89 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Nearby sold comps map

Loading sold comps map…

Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

Loading nearby amenities…

Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income
$33,972
− Mortgage interest
−$26,327
− Property taxes
−$7,050
− Insurance
−$2,350
− Repairs & maintenance
−$2,718
− Management
−$2,718
− HOA
−$1,140
− Depreciation
−$13,672
Taxable loss
−$22,003
combined federal + state — saved on this device
Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
+$5,281
After-tax cash flow
$-7,998/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 8 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This David Weekley Home is under construction and will be move-in ready upon completion. The design and materials are of high quality, making it an excellent investment.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 44/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Neptune Elementary School F FL #1,366/2,144 Nat'l #17,525/41,679 Middle Neptune Middle School C- FL #274/571 Nat'l #3,846/14,009 High St. Cloud High School F FL #289/667 Nat'l #7,961/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District
Osceola
NCES district ID
1201470
Math proficiency
39% ▼ -9.00%
Reading proficiency
45% ▼ -4.00%
Median HH income
$45,528
Composite
35.7/100
National rank
#4865
State rank
#60 of 73 in FL

Livability — St. Cloud

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

Census place
St. Cloud, FL
County
Osceola County · 447,624 people
City population
29,247
Metro
Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
Population (ZIP)
35,390
Household income
$97,868
Rent vs Own
17.2% rent · 82.8% own
Severe rent burden
9% of renters

Population outlook (Osceola County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025)
447,624 people
By 2030
511,823 · +14.3%
By 2040
642,986 · +43.6%
By 2050
774,552 · +73.0%
By 2075
1,078,144 · +140.9%
By 2100
1,269,660 · +183.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character
Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
Race & ethnicity
White 44% Hispanic / Latino 44% Two or more races 19% Black 4% Asian 2%
Hispanic origin (detail)
Puerto Rican 20% Cuban 2% Dominican 6%
Common ancestry
Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Iranian 1%
Foreign-born
18% · Canada, Jamaica
Languages at home
60% English-only · Spanish 36% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Osceola

2024 margin
Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.2% · Other 1.1%
2008→2024 swing
-21.2pp toward R · 2008: 19.7pp · 2024: -1.4pp
All cycles
2024: R+1.4 2020: D+13.8 2016: D+25.0 2012: D+24.5 2008: D+19.7

Not yet ingested

Civics
—

Price history

+0.0% since first listed
2 events — show timeline
  • 2026-04-25 Listed $481,099 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2026-04-08 Listed $481,099 Zillow

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

Loading sold comps…