3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
2,502 sqft ·
Built 1971
· MultiFamily
· Pending
· 108 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,716/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,573
Tax + insurance
−$655
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$570
Net cashflow
$-83/mo
Annual
$-991/yr
Cap rate
5.96%
Cash-on-cash
-1.18%
DSCR
0.95
1% rule
0.91%
Cash to close
$84,000
Investor read
This is a 2 × 2-bed/2.0-bath units multifamily listed at $300k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-83 ($-991/yr) — negative. Per door: $-41/mo.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $285k (4.9% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $272k (9.5% below list).
It's been on market 108 days — a 9% lower offer ($273k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $272k (9.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 74/100 on livability (#166 in TX, #4,378 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, commute F, employment D-.
Midway ISD (other): math 61% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #56 of 826 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Chapel Park El (463 students, 40% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 186 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,014 units permitted in McLennan County in 2024 (200 in 5+ unit buildings).
McLennan County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 56% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.9% in Waco — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $2,716/mo this rent would consume 56% of the median local household income ($58k/yr) (locally 1202% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 108 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
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· Data 1 week agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29