7845 Tarpon Pl

Norfolk, VA 23518

$290,000D+

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,436 sqft · Built 1957 · SingleFamily · Under Contract · 9 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,395/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,521
• Tax + insurance: −$376
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$503
• Net cashflow: $-4/mo
• Annual: $-52/yr
• Cap rate: 6.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.06%
• DSCR: 1.00
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $81,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $290k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-4 ($-52/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $289k (0.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $240k (17.4% below list).
• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $240k (17.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#43 in VA, #1,026 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Norfolk City Public School District (urban): math 27% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #118 of 131 in VA (top 90%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Little Creek Elementary (math 20% / reading 49%, grade F, #966 of 1,108 statewide, top 89%, 631 students, 97% FRL); Lake Taylor High (math 38% / reading 72%, grade C, #279 of 319 statewide, top 88%, 1,030 students, 92% FRL) — zoned schools average 95% FRL vs 59% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 206 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 438 units permitted in Norfolk city in 2024 (273 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.0% in Norfolk — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.