4 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,437 sqft ·
Built 1920
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 102 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,736/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$629
Tax + insurance
−$217
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$365
Net cashflow
$526/mo
Annual
$6,310/yr
Cap rate
11.55%
Cash-on-cash
18.78%
DSCR
1.84
1% rule
1.45%
Cash to close
$33,600
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k. Condition is rated fair.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $526 ($6k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
It's been on market 102 days — a 9% lower offer ($109k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $109k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,027 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment C-, amenities F.
Sherman ISD (urban): math 31% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #546 of 826 in TX (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Dillingham El (837 students, 91% FRL); Piner Middle (math 31% / reading 41%, grade F, #805 of 1,662 statewide, top 50%, 818 students, 75% FRL); Sherman H S (math 28% / reading 44%, grade F, #930 of 1,632 statewide, top 57%, 2,155 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 79% FRL vs 60% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.7%/yr); 601 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 93d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,272 units permitted in Grayson County in 2024 (750 in 5+ unit buildings).
Grayson County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 11.6% vs local median 3.8% in Sherman — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 102 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)
Moderate: Siding
— Weathered and discolored, needs repainting or replacement.
Moderate: Exterior walls
— Exposed framing and drywall, needs finishing.