206 Burnt Rock Falls Rd

Fairfield Bay, AR 72088

$75,000B+

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,290 sqft · Built 1978 · SingleFamily · Active · 1 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,317/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax + insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$277
• Net cashflow: $568/mo
• Annual: $6,820/yr
• Cap rate: 15.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 32.48%
• DSCR: 2.45
• 1% rule: 1.76%
• Cash to close: $21,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $75k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $568 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• In year one you build about $162 of equity ($519 loan paydown + $-357 appreciation (-0.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#220 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Shirley School District (rural): math 44% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #132 of 245 in AR (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Shirley Elementary School (math 12% / reading 12%, grade F, #419 of 454 statewide, top 93%, 180 students, 100% FRL); Shirley High School (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #164 of 292 statewide, top 61%, 139 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 73% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 20% at this address vs 43% district-wide (-24 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Shirley School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 339 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 62d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 16 units permitted in Van Buren County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Van Buren County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $60k; 25% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-0.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 15.4% vs local median 3.5% in Fairfield Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: roof — The roof appears to be old and possibly leaking.
• Major: exterior siding — The siding is weathered and needs replacement.
• Major: landscaping — The landscaping is sparse and needs improvement to enhance curb appeal.