206 Burnt Rock Falls Rd · Fairfield Bay, AR 72088

$75,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,290 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1978 Est $141k · 47% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.8/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Quaint Two bedroom and one bath rock/frame home with attached carport. Great starter home or investment property. Property is being sold subject to 24 CFR 206.125. Property is sold strictly "AS IS" with no additional disclosures or warranties. Fax offers to 501-982-9543 with a prequal letter.

Key facts

• Waterfall
• Secluded location
• Sunroom

Tags

• SUNROOM
• WATERFALL
• SECLUDED LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $75k).
• Cap rate 24.0% vs local median 5.3% in Fairfield Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#220 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Shirley School District (rural): math 44% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #132 of 245 in AR (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 259 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 16 units permitted in Van Buren County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $162 of equity ($519 loan paydown + $-357 appreciation (-0.5% local appreciation)).
• Van Buren County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-0.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $60k; 25% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $75,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.67% ✓
• Cap rate: 24.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 63.29%
• DSCR: 3.82
• GRM: 3.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $140,610
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
171 Pine Knot Rd	0.14mi	2/2.5	1,334 (+3%)	1mo	$155,000	$116	83
211 Burnt Rock Falls Rd	0.04mi	2/2.0	1,394 (+8%)	1mo	$125,000	$90	82
108 Jonas Ct	0.44mi	2/3.0	1,296 (+0%)	1mo	$68,000	$52	72
111 Dunn Hollow Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,284 (-0%)	13mo	$139,900	$109	62
112 Blase Line Rd	0.44mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,362 (+6%)	3mo	$152,500	$112	61
105 Jonas Ct	0.46mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,302 (+1%)	14mo	$240,000	$184	58
109 Dunn Hollow Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,388 (+8%)	4mo	$48,000	$35	57
172 Dunn Hollow Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,404 (+9%)	10mo	$155,000	$110	56
173 Dunn Hollow Rd	0.31mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,378 (+7%)	15mo	$123,000	$89	55
103 Woodcove Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,284 (-0%)	23mo	$129,000	$100	51
564 Dave Creek Parkway St	0.45mi	2/2.0	1,156 (-10%)	23mo	$133,000	$115	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.48% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 64.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.18×
• Total profit: $66,684
• Equity at exit: $20,008

10-year hold

• IRR: 67.1%
• Equity multiple: 8.47×
• Total profit: $156,907
• Equity at exit: $22,680

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72088

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 259
• Price-to-rent: 3.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$48 /mo · $575/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $1,108

Break-even live

Break-even rent $598

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 40%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
106 Set Ct Fairfield Bay, AR	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,000	$1.54	44d	1	0.27mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-26
   listed $75,000 Active
2. 2025-07-10
   soldstatus $60,000
3. 2013-10-03
   soldstatus $19,500 303-char remark

   Show marketing remark (303 chars)

   Quaint Two bedroom and one bath rock/frame home with attached carport. Great starter home or investment property. Property is being sold subject to 24 CFR 206.125. Property is sold strictly "AS IS" with no additional disclosures or warranties. Fax offers to 501-982-9543 with a prequal letter.

4. 2013-09-19
   historical 303-char remark

   Show marketing remark (303 chars)

   Quaint Two bedroom and one bath rock/frame home with attached carport. Great starter home or investment property. Property is being sold subject to 24 CFR 206.125. Property is sold strictly "AS IS" with no additional disclosures or warranties. Fax offers to 501-982-9543 with a prequal letter.

5. 2012-06-20
   listed $19,500 303-char remark

   Show marketing remark (303 chars)

   Quaint Two bedroom and one bath rock/frame home with attached carport. Great starter home or investment property. Property is being sold subject to 24 CFR 206.125. Property is sold strictly "AS IS" with no additional disclosures or warranties. Fax offers to 501-982-9543 with a prequal letter.

6. 2007-01-16
   soldstatus $59,000
7. 1992-02-01
   soldstatus $55,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $575 · $48/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $575 · $48/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$575
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,920
• − Management: −$1,920
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $12,827
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,079
• After-tax cash flow: $10,212/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shirley School District
• NCES district ID: 0512420
• Math proficiency: 44% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $36,296
• Composite: 37.98/100
• National rank: #8669
• State rank: #132 of 245 in AR

Livability — Fairfield Bay

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #220
• US rank: #16778

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fairfield Bay, AR
• City population: 2,264
• Population (ZIP): 2,264

Population outlook (Van Buren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,459 people
• By 2030: 14,645 · -5.3%
• By 2040: 12,918 · -16.4%
• By 2050: 11,263 · -27.1%
• By 2075: 7,870 · -49.1%
• By 2100: 4,918 · -68.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 9% Iranian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Van Buren

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.2) · D 18.9% · R 79.0% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.5pp toward R · 2008: -31.7pp · 2024: -60.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.2 2020: R+56.9 2016: R+53.9 2012: R+39.5 2008: R+31.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.48%
• Current HPI: 238.2694
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+36.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $75,000 FSBO.com
• 2025-07-10 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records
• 2013-10-03 Sold (MLS) $19,500 CARMLS
• 2013-09-19 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2012-06-20 Listed $19,500 CARMLS
• 2007-01-16 Sold (Public Records) $59,000 Public Records
• 1992-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $575 · +2515.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.