3161 S 27th St

Buena Vista, MI 48601

$17,500D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 855 sqft · Built 1936 · SingleFamily · Pending · 29 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $923/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$92
• Tax + insurance: −$16
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$194
• Net cashflow: $621/mo
• Annual: $7,453/yr
• Cap rate: 48.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 152.11%
• DSCR: 7.77
• 1% rule: 5.28%
• Cash to close: $4,900

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $18k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $621 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($923 rent vs $18k).
• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($17k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $17k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $121 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $525 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#615 in MI) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Bridgeport-Spaulding Community School District (suburban): math 7% / reading 17% proficiency, ranked #513 of 540 in MI (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1936 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 201 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 154 units permitted in Saginaw County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Saginaw County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $8k (30%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $5k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 48.9% vs local median 11.9% in Buena Vista — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1936 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.