3161 S 27th St · Buena Vista, MI 48601

$17,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 855 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 29 Days on market

Built 1936 5,227 sqft lot $20/sqft · 69% below area ↓ 30% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

2 bedroom, one bath home Needs a little TLC or Great investment property or Flip. The location is on almost a dead end road.

Key facts

• 5,227 sq ft lot
• Built 1936
• Listed 29 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: About 855 above-grade finished square feet
• HOA & community: Homeowners association present

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 53 x 96 (0.12 acre); No pool

Interior

• Bedrooms: Total of 4 rooms (bedrooms included)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Ceiling fan(s) for cooling
• Interior features: Gas water heater; Crawl space basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $18k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $621 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($923 rent vs $18k).
• Recommended offer: $17k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 48.9% vs local median 11.7% in Buena Vista — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#615 in MI) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Bridgeport-Spaulding Community School District (suburban): math 7% / reading 17% proficiency, ranked #513 of 540 in MI (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 199 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 154 units permitted in Saginaw County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $121 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $525 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Saginaw County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $5k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($17k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $8k (30%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1936 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $17,237 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1936 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 48.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 152.11%
• DSCR: 7.77
• GRM: 1.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $55,706
• List price: $17,500
• Delta: -68.58%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2400 Bewick St	0.31mi	2/1.0	816 (-5%)	3mo	$5,000	$6	76
2735 Ohio St	0.36mi	2/1.0	832 (-3%)	5mo	$57,000	$69	75
4149 Hess Ave	0.35mi	2/1.0	879 (+3%)	6mo	$16,500	$19	74
2837 Longview Ave	0.30mi	2/1.0	864 (+1%)	14mo	$89,900	$104	73
2516 Bewick St	0.20mi	2/1.0	756 (-12%)	3mo	$38,000	$50	69
3531 Summer Ln	0.46mi	2/1.0	804 (-6%)	5mo	$47,500	$59	65
2839 Ohio Ave	0.40mi	2/1.0	888 (+4%)	14mo	$72,500	$82	63
2799 Longview Ave	0.28mi	3/1.0 (+1)	968 (+13%)	3mo	$37,500	$39	58
4126 Morris St	0.54mi	3/1.0 (+1)	936 (+10%)	3mo	$22,500	$24	51
4749 Strathmoor St	0.45mi	2/2.0	960 (+12%)	12mo	$90,000	$94	44
4724 HESS Rd	0.43mi	3/1.0 (+1)	968 (+13%)	15mo	$83,000	$86	41
3925 Lamson St	0.75mi	2/1.0	918 (+7%)	20mo	$38,000	$41	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 8.50×
• Total profit: $36,729
• Equity at exit: $2,609

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 17.93×
• Total profit: $82,946
• Equity at exit: $1,513

Cash invested: $4,900 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48601

• Home prices YoY: -32.1%
• Active inventory: 199
• Price-to-rent: 1.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $923 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$92
• Tax from tax record: −$9 /mo · $110/yr
• Insurance: −$7
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$194
• Net cashflow: $621

Break-even live

Break-even rent $137

Max offer price $17,500

Occupancy floor 28%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $4,375
• Closing costs: $525
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2800 Gemini St Unit GE2800 Saginaw, MI	3.0	2.0	960	$920	$0.96	44d	1	0.26mi
2564 Apollo Dr Unit AP2564 Saginaw, MI	3.0	2.0	960	$883	$0.92	44d	1	0.27mi
2554 Apollo Dr Unit AP2554 Saginaw, MI	3.0	2.0	960	$883	$0.92	44d	1	0.28mi
3328 Webber St Saginaw, MI	3.0	1.0	878	$1,250	$1.42	44d	1	1.17mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-12
   statusdays on market $17,500 Pending 29 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $17,500 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $17,500 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $17,500 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $17,500 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-04
   days on market $17,500 Active 22 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   remarks 124-char remark
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $17,500 Active 21 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   price $17,500 Active 20 DOM

   Show marketing remark (124 chars)

   2 bedroom, one bath home Needs a little TLC or Great investment property or Flip. The location is on almost a dead end road.

10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $25,000 Active 20 DOM

    Show marketing remark (124 chars)

    2 bedroom, one bath home Needs a little TLC or Great investment property or Flip. The location is on almost a dead end road.

11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $25,000 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $25,000 Active 18 DOM
13. 2026-05-12
    listed $25,000 Active 102-char remark

    Show marketing remark (124 chars)

    2 bedroom, one bath home Needs a little TLC or Great investment property or Flip. The location is on almost a dead end road.

14. 2026-05-12
    listed $25,000 Active 102-char remark

    Show marketing remark (124 chars)

    2 bedroom, one bath home Needs a little TLC or Great investment property or Flip. The location is on almost a dead end road.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $110 · $9/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $190 · $16/mo
• Expected delta: +$80/yr (+$7/mo · 72.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,078
• − Mortgage interest: −$980
• − Property taxes: −$110
• − Insurance: −$88
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$886
• − Management: −$886
• − Depreciation: −$509
• Taxable income: $7,619
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,829
• After-tax cash flow: $5,625/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bridgeport-Spaulding Community School District
• NCES district ID: 2606780
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 17% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $38,403
• Composite: 10.13/100
• National rank: #9800
• State rank: #513 of 540 in MI

Livability — Buena Vista

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #615
• US rank: #20603

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety C- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buena Vista, MI
• City population: 32,069
• Population (ZIP): 32,069

Population outlook (Saginaw County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 180,568 people
• By 2030: 172,302 · -4.6%
• By 2040: 153,919 · -14.8%
• By 2050: 135,519 · -24.9%
• By 2075: 97,199 · -46.2%
• By 2100: 65,037 · -64.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 59% White 27% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Saginaw

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.0% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 17.3pp · 2024: -3.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.3 2020: D+0.3 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+11.9 2008: D+17.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -93.46%
• Current HPI: 197.3359
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

-30.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2026-06-10 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-06-01 Price Changed $17,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-06-01 Price Changed $17,500 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-12 Listed $25,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-12 Listed $25,000 REALCOMP

Property tax history

-11.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $110 · -79.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.