410 Guadalupe River Dr

Tivoli, TX 77990

$118,000C+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 744 sqft · Built 2021 · SingleFamily · Active · 264 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,138/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$619
• Tax + insurance: −$583
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$239
• Net cashflow: $-303/mo
• Annual: $-3,632/yr
• Cap rate: 7.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.50%
• DSCR: 1.20
• 1% rule: 0.96%
• Cash to close: $33,040

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $118k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-303 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $65k (45.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $114k (3.5% below list).
• It's been on market 264 days — a 12% lower offer ($104k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $65k (45.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-0.8%/yr); year-one equity from $816 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $892 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,043 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Calhoun County ISD (town): math 44% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #293 of 826 in TX (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Jackson/Roosevelt El (math 51% / reading 49%, grade D+, #849 of 4,322 statewide, top 20%, 852 students, 68% FRL); Travis Middle (math 26% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,056 of 1,662 statewide, top 65%, 702 students, 74% FRL); Calhoun H S (math 53% / reading 38%, grade D-, #634 of 1,632 statewide, top 39%, 987 students, 51% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: 21 active listings in the ZIP; 95 units permitted in Calhoun County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Calhoun County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 5 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $27k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 264 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 45% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.