826 NE Shoshone Dr

Redmond, OR 97756

$299,900D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · Built 1995 · Manufactured · Pending · 33 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,322/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax + insurance: −$245
• HOA: −$132
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$488
• Net cashflow: $-115/mo
• Annual: $-1,382/yr
• Cap rate: 5.83%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.65%
• DSCR: 0.93
• 1% rule: 0.77%
• Cash to close: $83,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $300k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-115 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $280k (6.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $232k (22.6% below list).
• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($291k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $232k (22.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#68 in OR, #2,715 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, amenities A-; Watch: commute F.
• Redmond SD 2J (town): math 24% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #28 of 58 in OR (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Tom Mccall Elementary School (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #218 of 412 statewide, top 58%, 478 students, 38% FRL); Elton Gregory Middle School (math 18% / reading 39%, grade F, #94 of 128 statewide, top 73%, 709 students, 40% FRL); Redmond High School (936 students, 38% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 737 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,624 units permitted in Deschutes County in 2024 (391 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Deschutes County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 23y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $43k; list at $300k implies a 599% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 2.8% in Redmond — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($87k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.