10 SW South River Dr #804

Miami, FL 33130

$390,000D+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 997 sqft · Built 2003 · Condo · Active · 22 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,752/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,045
• Tax + insurance: −$1,107
• HOA: −$1,146
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$998
• Net cashflow: $-545/mo
• Annual: $-6,538/yr
• Cap rate: 5.93%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.30%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 1.22%
• Cash to close: $109,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $390k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-545 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $294k (24.7% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $390k).
• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($384k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $294k (24.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.8%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#177 in FL, #2,724 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, cost of living F.
• Miami-Dade (suburban): math 45% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #40 of 73 in FL (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; HOA is 24% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.5%/yr); 639 active listings in the ZIP; 10,051 units permitted in Miami-Dade County in 2024 (7,758 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Miami-Dade County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $240k; list at $390k implies a 62% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 1.9% in Miami — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $4,752/mo this rent would consume 93% of the median local household income ($61k/yr) (locally 5231% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?