457 Hickory Valley Rd

Arlington Heights, PA 18360

$799,800C-

None bd · 28.0 ba · 5,498 sqft · Built 2007 · MultiFamily · Pending · 11 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $8,180/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,194
• Tax + insurance: −$1,445
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,718
• Net cashflow: $823/mo
• Annual: $9,873/yr
• Cap rate: 7.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.41%
• DSCR: 1.20
• 1% rule: 1.02%
• Cash to close: $223,944

Investor read

• This is a 4 × 2-bed/1-bath units multifamily listed at $800k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $823 ($10k/yr) — positive. Per door: $206/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($8k rent vs $800k).
• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $24k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#317 in PA, #2,815 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: amenities D, employment D.
• Stroudsburg Area SD (suburban): math 33% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #315 of 539 in PA (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hamilton Twp El Sch (math 47% / reading 57%, grade C-, #586 of 1,518 statewide, top 42%, 297 students, 38% FRL); Stroudsburg Ms (math 25% / reading 49%, grade F, #298 of 512 statewide, top 60%, 1,056 students, 45% FRL); Stroudsburg Hs (math 71% / reading 24%, grade D, #164 of 437 statewide, top 38%, 1,246 students, 34% FRL).
• Market conditions: 191 active listings in the ZIP; 278 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (52 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Monroe County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $800k implies a 966% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 3.4% in Arlington Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $8,180/mo this rent would consume 137% of the median local household income ($71k/yr) (locally 1020% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.