457 Hickory Valley Rd · Arlington Heights, PA 18360

$799,800

None bd · 28.0 ba · 5,498 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 2007 2.30 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (5+ Unit). Listing-text estimate: 4 units. estimate disagrees with records

5+ unit building — per-unit beds/baths from public records are typically unavailable; the breakdown below (if shown) is an estimate from the listing text.

Listing remarks

Exceptional 4-Unit Investment Opportunity in pristine condition, offering a rare combination of high-end upgrades, strong rental income, and low operating expenses. Ideally located just 3 miles west of Stroudsburg and only 25 minutes to the Lehigh Valley, this property is perfectly positioned for professional tenants seeking convenience and lifestyle. Residents enjoy immediate access to vibrant downtown amenities including the renowned Courthouse Square Farmers Market, over 50 restaurants, wineries, pubs, boutique shopping, and year-round community events, making this an ideal location for premium rentals. The property has been meticulously maintained and upgraded for both owner efficiency

Key facts

• Dual septic pumps
• High end upgrades
• Strong rental income

Tags

• 4 UNIT INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY
• HIGH END UPGRADES
• STRONG RENTAL INCOME
• LOW OPERATING EXPENSES
• RESERVE HOT WATER TANK SYSTEM
• DUAL SEPTIC PUMPS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Road is public and maintained; City street frontage; Zoned commercial
• Financial info: Property currently used commercially

Exterior

• Parking: Open parking (10 spaces); Driveway; Off-street parking; Parking lot; Paved parking
• Security: Fire sprinkler system; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; 200+ amp electric service with circuit breakers
• Home design: Residential income property (multi-family); Faces east
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Asphalt/fiberglass shingle roof; Basement
• Exterior features: Patio; Porch; Corner lot; Level lot; Back yard; Few trees; Paved surfaces; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 7 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Geothermal heating; Zoned heating; Central air; Ceiling fans; Zoned cooling
• Interior features: Pantry; Eat-in kitchen; Laminate counters; Recessed lighting; Ceiling fans; Storage
• Laundry & utility: In-unit laundry; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Laundry closet; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4 × 2-bed/1-bath units multifamily listed at $800k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $823 ($10k/yr) — positive. Per door: $206/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($8k rent vs $800k).
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 3.4% in Arlington Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#317 in PA, #2,815 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: amenities D, employment D.
• Stroudsburg Area SD (suburban): math 33% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #315 of 539 in PA (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hamilton Twp El Sch (math 47% / reading 57%, grade C-, #586 of 1,518 statewide, top 42%, 297 students, 38% FRL); Stroudsburg Ms (math 25% / reading 49%, grade F, #298 of 512 statewide, top 60%, 1,056 students, 45% FRL); Stroudsburg Hs (math 71% / reading 24%, grade D, #164 of 437 statewide, top 38%, 1,246 students, 34% FRL).
• Market conditions: 189 active listings in the ZIP; 278 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (52 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $8,180/mo this rent would consume 137% of the median local household income ($71k/yr) (locally 1020% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $24k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monroe County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $800k implies a 966% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $799,800

Questions for the listing agent

1. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
2. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.41%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-77,009
• Equity at exit: $119,253

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.01×
• Total profit: $1,198
• Equity at exit: $69,152

Cash invested: $223,944 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18360

• Active inventory: 189
• Price-to-rent: 32.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $8,180 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,194
• Tax from tax record: −$1,112 /mo · $13,344/yr
• Insurance: −$333
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,718
• Net cashflow: $823

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,139

Max offer price $799,800

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,275	-5% $1,049	+0% $823	+5% $596	+10% $370
Rent	-10% $177	-5% $500	+0% $823	+5% $1,146	+10% $1,469
Rate	-1.0pp $1,226	-0.5pp $1,026	base $823	+0.5pp $615	+1.0pp $405

4-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 4× units	2	1	$8,180
Total (4 units)			$8,180

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $199,950
• Closing costs: $23,994
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-04
   status Pending 1478-char remark
2. 2026-04-24
   listed $799,800 Active 1478-char remark
3. 2003-10-17
   soldstatus $75,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $13,344 · $1,112/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $13,344 · $1,112/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 11% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $98,160
• − Mortgage interest: −$44,801
• − Property taxes: −$13,344
• − Insurance: −$3,999
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$7,853
• − Management: −$7,853
• − Depreciation: −$23,267
• Taxable loss: −$2,956
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$710
• After-tax cash flow: $10,582/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Stroudsburg Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4222860
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $59,061
• Composite: 36.13/100
• National rank: #4747
• State rank: #315 of 539 in PA

Livability — Arlington Heights

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #317
• US rank: #2815

Category grades

Amenities D Commute B- Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Monroe County · 59,057 people
• Metro: East Stroudsburg, PA
• Population (ZIP): 30,080
• Household income: $71,481
• Rent vs Own: 29.8% rent · 70.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1020.0

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 164,099 people
• By 2030: 161,412 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 154,616 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 146,710 · -10.6%
• By 2075: 140,830 · -14.2%
• By 2100: 138,472 · -15.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 10% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Polish 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 8% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.1% · R 49.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.1pp toward R · 2008: 16.3pp · 2024: -0.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.8 2020: D+6.4 2016: D+0.3 2012: D+14.0 2008: D+16.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -124.01%
• Current HPI: 152.4388
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: East Stroudsburg, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+966.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Pending — PMAR
• 2026-04-24 Listed $799,800 PMAR
• 2003-10-17 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2026): $13,344 · -0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.