405 Wilderness Rd

Lyons, TX 77879

$140,000B+

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,100 sqft · Built 2025 · Land · Active · 40 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,800/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax + insurance: −$233
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $454/mo
• Annual: $5,454/yr
• Cap rate: 10.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.91%
• DSCR: 1.62
• 1% rule: 1.29%
• Cash to close: $39,200

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath land listed at $140k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $454 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $136k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($968 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Somerville ISD (rural): math 36% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #579 of 826 in TX (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Somerville El (math 22% / reading 12%, grade F, #3,836 of 4,322 statewide, top 91%, 225 students, 77% FRL); Somerville Int (math 47% / reading 32%, grade F, #660 of 1,662 statewide, top 41%, 109 students, 72% FRL); Somerville H S (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #963 of 1,632 statewide, top 61%, 199 students, 72% FRL).
• Market conditions: 222 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 44 units permitted in Burleson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (1.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 92% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.2% vs local median 3.9% in Lyons — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.